WATER POLITICS

The Tian Shan mountains, also known as the water tower of Central Asia, are a crucial source of water for regional agriculture, industries, and millions of people across the Central Asian countries and China’s Xinjiang region. It’s been reported that the Tian Shan mountain glaciers have lost “27 percent of their mass and 18 percent of their area” in the last 50 years.

Overall, the Tian Shan mountains are projected to lose about one-third of the area’s glaciers before 2040, according to a recent study. Furthermore, scientists worry that it may get even worse depending on the climate scenario, which could see “between 63 percent and 93 percent” reduction of the Tian Shan glacier mass in the coming decades.

Tian Shan mountain glaciers as viewed from a satellite, Oct. 9, 2023. Photo by NASA.

Previous forecasts projected a similar outcome, although with an extended timeframe until the 2050s.

Such a scenario, if realized, is likely to have a severe negative impact on irrigation water supply availability in the most vulnerable states, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Both countries grapple with insufficiently maintained water distribution infrastructure and water mismanagement, while Uzbekistan’s cotton industry has been blamed for the Aral Sea disaster.

“For Central Asia as a whole, projections show that about 20 percent of today’s glacier mass could be lost by 2040. This is largely influenced by the very large glaciers in the Karakoram, Pamir, and Himalaya, which are part of the broader Central Asian region. In contrast, the Tian Shan contains many smaller glaciers that respond more quickly to climate change. Moreover, the Tian Shan appears particularly vulnerable due to its specific accumulation regime: rising temperatures not only enhance melt but also reduce snowfall,” Lander Van Tricht, a post-doctoral researcher at ETH Zurich and VUB Brussels and one of the co-authors of the study paper, told The Diplomat.

Ben Orlove, a professor at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, believes that “things will get serious soon, and might be very drastic further in the future. Reducing emissions could help, but radical reductions are unlikely.” 

However, “Central Asia might have some hope with increased precipitation,” in the future, Orlove told The Diplomat. 

Increasing glacier melt potentially poses questions regarding the regional governments’ plans to build hydropower projects in Kyrgyzstan. More international donors, including the World Bank, have reportedly taken an interest in participating in the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydro project with total investments reaching up to $4 billion. 

“Peak water will occur soon in many basins, followed by a shift in runoff from late summer toward late spring. In several mountain ranges and catchments, this shift is already observable. If reduced summer glacier runoff is not compensated by rainfall or snowmelt — particularly in dry years — irrigation shortages can already occur today. This is especially true in regions dominated by smaller glaciers,” Van Tricht told The Diplomat. 

“Hydropower projects can certainly provide opportunities by storing water during periods of abundance and generating renewable electricity,” he said. “However, I remain somewhat cautious. Large hydropower infrastructure also gives control over downstream water availability, which may have geopolitical implications when rivers cross national or regional borders. Clear agreements and strong transboundary governance frameworks are therefore essential to ensure equitable and sustainable water management.”

Similarly, Orlove believes that a well-planned hydropower project could conceivably be possible, if more rainfall takes place in the Tian Shan mountains. “But that will vary year to year, and it will be hard for planners to deal with the decline from ‘peak water’ energy choices depending on many factors.”

Scientists and experts alike predict that global warming will have a significant impact in Central Asia. Within the region, the “rate of temperature increase will continue to outpace global values, which may increase the “frequency and depth of hydrological drought, as well as an increase intensity in desertification processes… The intensive melting of glaciers and changes in river runoff exacerbating many water and environmental problems can have a destabilizing effect on food security and high-quality drinking water supply to the population, as well as on the operation of hydroelectric power plants.”

“We are currently on track for approximately +2.7 degrees C of global warming by 2100. For the Tian Shan, this would roughly correspond to an SSP2-4.5–like pathway (climate scenario), resulting in about 82 percent mass loss relative to today. A more realistic estimate under present policies would likely fall in the range of 75–85 percent mass loss,” Van Tricht told The Diplomat.