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WATER POLITICS

Courtesy of SIWI, a new report examining water cooperation in Central Asia and Afghanistan:

The region of Central Asia and Afghanistan faces growing water insecurity and natural hazards amidst a rapidly changing climate with rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and glacial melt affecting the volume, peak, and variability of river flows. Increased water scarcity and unpredictability of water availability will exacerbate already severe seasonal shortages. These challenges are likely to cascade into rising humanitarian needs, slower economic development, and increased risks to social and regional stability.

The transboundary nature of the region’s two major river systems of the Aral Sea Basin – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – necessitates effective regional cooperation to manage shared waters. Cooperation will come under increasing pressure as altered flows under climate-driven events heighten tensions between upstream and downstream needs, threatening food and energy security as well as regional stability. Water scarcity is further exacerbated by low levels of water productivity in addition to governance gaps, trust deficits, and the absence of fully inclusive regional cooperative mechanisms capable of managing shared water risks under a scenario of climate uncertainty.

Despite being a riparian state to the Amu Darya, Afghanistan has not been included in existing regional water governance frameworks. This historical absence is further compounded by plans for unilateral infrastructure development under the Taliban de facto authorities (DFA) – most notably the ongoing construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal (QTC). Placing further demands on water from the Amu Darya, the QTC poses risks in particular for downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The QTC lays bares the risks of Afghanistan’s absence from regional arrangements and underscores the need for dialogue and cooperation, not only on the canal but also on larger basin and cross-sectoral issues across the region.

Without improved coordination among Central Asian countries including Afghanistan, the region risks experiencing cascading climatefragility impacts – from increased competition over water and heightened instability, to rising poverty, migration, insecurity, and setbacks to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Given that the issue of water is complex and cross-cutting, cooperation cannot focus solely on water allocation and management: it also needs to integrate climate adaptation, food security, energy and trade connectivity, transportation, regional security, and sustainable development more broadly that involve stakeholders and interests beyond water

By aligning technical collaboration on water with leveraging broader regional interdependencies and confidence-building measures, the region has an advantageous opportunity to turn shared challenges—including climate impacts and unilateral water development—into catalysts for constructive engagement that enhance benefit-sharing, regional economic integration, and long-term stability.

Despite constraints, evidence of increased political will and momentum by the five Central Asian states to pursue deeper regional cooperation, including addressing shared water challenges, presents a major opportunity. Broadening cooperation and making it more inclusive by incorporating Afghanistan as a key partner in regional dialogues is crucial for mitigating risks and harnessing shared benefits. Rising hydrological uncertainty and increasing water insecurity amplify not only risks but also incentives for cooperation. Now is the time to reframe Afghanistan not as a peripheral actor but as a critical upstream riparian whose inclusion is indispensable for longterm basin stability.