WATER POLITICS

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two separate but revealing stories that show how Central Asia is being shaped by forces well beyond its borders, be they military drones (launched by either Russia or Ukraine) or canals being built by Afghanistan.

The episode opens with a discussion of the latest drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure in southern Russia. Although these attacks are part of Ukraine’s effort to weaken the Russian energy system, they are directly affecting Kazakhstan, which relies heavily on this route to export its oil. With foreign energy companies like Chevron, Shell, and Eni invested in the pipeline, the implications are not just regional, but international.

Kazakhstan’s muted reaction to these attacks stands out. Even after three incidents, most recently on March 24, Astana has refrained from issuing strong condemnations, a strategy the hosts interpret as an attempt to quietly ride out the storm. But as we discuss, this low-key approach may be tested as the attacks continue. Meanwhile, stray drones, possibly originating from either side of the war, have landed inside Kazakhstan’s own territory, raising security concerns among the public and prompting questions about the country’s air defense preparedness.

The second half of the podcast turns to water politics, specifically the impact of Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal. This massive infrastructure project, underway since early 2022, is designed to divert water from the Amu Darya river to irrigate farmland in northern Afghanistan. While this may help Afghan farmers, it spells serious trouble downstream.

Uzbekistan, the main user of Amu Darya waters, is particularly vulnerable. The canal could significantly reduce the river’s flow, adding to the pressures already imposed by climate change. Yet, rather than raise alarm, Uzbek officials are opting for calm engagement. In a rare public statement on March 18, the country’s water minister emphasised dialogue and described his recent visits to Afghanistan for talks with the Taliban authorities as cordial.

In the podcast, we explore the diplomatic backdrop, noting that while historic treaties between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union addressed river borders and water quality, they never tackled water allocation. With Afghanistan now actively developing the river, the absence of such agreements is becoming urgent. Uzbekistan’s strategy appears twofold: work quietly to maintain relations with Kabul, while pushing ahead with domestic reforms to improve water efficiency and infrastructure.

The episode closes with a broader reflection on how Central Asia’s future may be shaped less by dramatic ruptures than by creeping transformations, in diplomacy, infrastructure, and ecology. Both topics underline the region’s challenge of navigating powerful external currents while preserving internal stability.

Mentioned reports:

Water Resource Development in Northern Afghanistan and Its Implications for Amu Darya Basin: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/434761468767735080/pdf/297030PAPER0Water0resource0Amu0Darya.pdf

Impacts of the Qosh Tepa Canal and Climate Change on Water Availability – German Economic Team: https://www.german-economic-team.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/GET_UZB_PB_05_2023_en.pdf