WATER POLITICS

Tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) took centre stage as US President Donald Trump met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Wednesday in Davos, Switzerland, where the two leaders publicly aligned their stance.

“When I think of Egypt, I think about the Nile more than anything else,” Trump said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, adding that Ethiopia had built “a very big one, very, very big one, massive dam”.

Mediating on GERD

Casting himself as a personal mediator, Trump said he would try to bring together the leaders of Egypt and Ethiopia to “see if we can make a deal”, warning that he “wouldn’t be happy” if water flows were disrupted.

Sisi praised Trump’s previous diplomatic efforts regarding the dam during his first term. “You almost had a deal, and you did everything in your power at the time to get this deal done,” he said.

Trump echoed the framing, describing GERD as “one of the largest dams in the world” and calling it “a very dangerous issue”.

The exchange underscored Washington’s leader-driven, bilateral approach, with little reference to African Union-led mediation or basin-wide frameworks.

Speaking to reporters at the White House earlier this week, Trump said Ethiopia had built a dam that “stops the flow” of the Nile River and that Egypt “does not get enough water”, adding that resolving the issue was now something he “must” do.

Factual framing questioned

Trump considered his diplomacy on GERD alongside what he described as diplomatic achievements, claiming he had “stopped eight wars”, including one he said was close to erupting between Ethiopia and Egypt.

There has been no military confrontation between the two countries, though diplomatic tensions over the dam have persisted for more than a decade.

Trump’s remarks drew attention not only for their political implications but also for their framing. In Davos, Trump said the dam “was financed by the United States” and “basically blocks the Nile River”.

Built at an estimated cost of $4bn-$5bn and largely financed domestically after Ethiopia failed to secure large-scale foreign loans, GERD is designed to double Ethiopia’s power supply, enable regional electricity exports and generate more than $1bn annually from domestic sales and cross-border trade.

The Nile, at roughly 6,650km and flowing through 11 countries, is one of the world’s longest rivers and central to regional water security and stability.

Completed in September 2025 on the Blue Nile, Ethiopia’s GERD rises 145m high and stretches 1,780m across. Its 13 turbines deliver an installed capacity of 5,150MW and are expected to generate about 15,760GW hours of electricity annually.

Washington’s renewed push

Trump’s Davos remarks followed a letter he sent on 16 January to Sisi declaring that resolving Nile water-sharing tensions was a “top priority” for his administration. The letter pledged US-backed guarantees on downstream releases during drought periods while allowing Ethiopia to generate electricity for possible export to Egypt and Sudan.

The language closely mirrors Cairo’s long-standing framing of the Nile as an “existential national security” issue. Egypt and Sudan welcomed the renewed US engagement. Ethiopia, however, has issued no official response.

Senior diplomats and analysts in Addis Ababa say the silence reflects “caution rather than disengagement”, as policymakers assess whether Washington’s reentry signals mediation or leverage.

Ethiopian ambition and symbolism in one project

The project has evolved into more than a hydropower facility. It is widely seen inside Ethiopia as a sovereign political economy project, symbolising development ambition and energy independence, funded through public bonds, salary contributions and diaspora fundraising.

Addis Ababa maintains that GERD regulates floods and generates hydropower without reducing downstream water allocations, arguing the dam is “non-consumptive”, with water passing through turbines and continuing downstream.

Its legal position rests on the principle of equitable and reasonable utilisation embedded in international water law and AU-supported frameworks.

Egypt, however, disagrees. Water Resources Minister Hani Sweilem has called for compensation for harm to Egypt and Sudan, telling the US Senate that GERD was built unilaterally and claiming Egypt’s water share has declined by 38bn cubic metres.

Ethiopia’s diplomatic line

Former Ethiopian state minister and Ambassador to Egypt Markos Tekle said any mediation must be grounded in neutrality and consent.

“The role of a mediator begins with full consultation of all stakeholders,” he said on his social media. “A process that appears tilted or coercive undermines trust and sovereignty.”

Markos argued that GERD is now a fait accompli and that discussions should return to basin-wide legal instruments such as the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement, rather than bilateral bargaining. Ethiopia, he said, supports cooperation, but not supervision.

Geopolitics at play

Trump’s renewed focus on GERD reflects wider strategic calculations that extend well beyond hydrology, according to regional analysts.

Nile diplomacy risks becoming a form of linked diplomacy

“Trump’s renewed focus on the Nile dam appears aimed at repositioning US strategic influence across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea,” says Mohammed Siraj, a geopolitical analyst and author of the book Possible, the story of the 14-year process of constructing GERD.

“GERD diplomacy intersects with wider concerns around maritime access, regional security and great-power competition, particularly as China and Russia expand their footprint in East Africa,” Siraj tells The Africa Report.

Washington may be seeking to reassert leverage over Ethiopia’s growing regional role as an energy exporter and security actor, according to Siraj.

He cautions that Nile diplomacy risks becoming a form of “linked diplomacy”, where progress on GERD negotiations is perceived as influencing parallel issues such as Ethiopia’s pursuit of port access and evolving international debates around Somaliland.

African Union sidelined?

Siraj also warns that sidelining AU-led mediation in favour of bilateral pressure could carry broader consequences.

Trump inflamed tensions by suggesting Egypt might blow up the dam

The AU, headquartered in Addis Ababa, has hosted multiple rounds of GERD negotiations under the principle of African solutions to African problems, which a number of Ethiopian officials fear could be marginalised by Washington’s renewed intervention.

During Trump’s first term, the US hosted negotiations in Washington in 2019-2020. Ethiopia later withdrew, accusing US institutions of advancing proposals that favoured Egypt. Trump subsequently inflamed tensions by suggesting Egypt might “blow up” the dam; remarks Ethiopian officials viewed as legitimising threats against civilian infrastructure.

Now, in his second term, Trump has returned to the dispute, repeating claims of US financing for GERD that remain unsupported by evidence.

For Ethiopian analysts, the pattern is familiar: Washington enters as broker but speaks largely in Cairo’s vocabulary.