BLOG
October 5th, 2016
Via Future Directions International, a look at China’s recent decision to block a tributary of the Brahmaputra River:
On 22 September, an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggested that New Delhi could unilaterally revoke the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) that governs water sharing arrangements between India and Pakistan. The Indian Government met to review the treaty on 26 September, but decided against revoking it. Following the meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told officials present at the meeting that ‘blood and water cannot flow together’, suggesting that he is still open to utilising water to pressure Pakistan. Meanwhile, China, which has close political ties with Pakistan, blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra River, which flows into north-east India, on 30 September. The diversion is part of the Lalho hydroelectric project underway in Tibet since 2014, but the timing of the diversion could be a Chinese signal to India to not act too hastily in reprimanding Pakistan.
Comment
China has plans for a number of water infrastructure projects in Tibet, designed to generate electricity, control floods and provide water for irrigation. Construction began on the Lalho project in 2014 and has now reached a point where water from the Xiabuqu River, located in the Tibetan prefecture of Xigaze, can be diverted to begin filling a run-of-the-river hydroelectric plant. Once complete, according toXinhua, the dam will be able to store 295 million cubic metres of water, irrigate 30,000 hectares of Tibetan farmland and generate 42 megawatts of electricity.
India fears that the dam will reduce the flow of water in the Brahmaputra, which provides water to the provinces of Arunachal Pradesh, which is subject to a long-running Sino-Indian territorial dispute, and Assam. The amount of water flowing into India should not be reduced once the project is finished. Some water will be stored for irrigation and flood control purposes, but the river will not be impeded as water will be diverted into a tunnel that contains electricity generating turbines before flowing back into the Xiabuqu and joining the Brahmaputra.
The Brahmaputra accounts for 30 per cent of India’s water supply, however, 70 per cent of the river’s flow comes from rain that falls over India during the monsoon season. The Xiabuqu River also reportedly contributes about 0.15 per cent of the flow of the Brahmaputra River when it enters India, suggesting that the diversion is unlikely to noticeably reduce the flow of water into the country.
Some commentators have suggested that the water diversion could be an attempt by China to rebuke India for threatening to abandon the IWT. This view could be accurate, however, the dam, which has been under construction since 2014, was going to be filled at some point in time regardless of what was occurring in the region. Modi will be under pressure to assure the people of Assam, some of whom have already expressed considerable concern about infrastructure projects in Tibet, that the current project poses no threat to their share of the Brahmaputra’s water.
There will be ample opportunity for India and China to alleviate any potential tension over the diversion. The Indian National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, met Luo Zhaohui, the Chinese Ambassador to India to discuss, among other issues, the river diversion. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi are also set to meet on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS Summit, to be held in the Indian state of Goa on 15-16 October. Xi could use this as an opportunity to make his views on the IWT known to Modi.
The Indian abrogation of the IWT would be a thoroughly disproportionate response to the supposed security threat that Pakistan poses to India. It would have an indiscriminate effect on almost all sectors of Pakistani society, further weaken trust between the two sides and isolate India internationally. By diverting the Xiabuqu River at a time of heightened tensions in the region, China could be signalling to India that any hasty decision concerning the IWT could have consequences for its own water security. Given that Indian interests are best served by maintaining the IWT, it is unlikely to unilaterally abandon the treaty.