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WATER POLITICS

Via China Water Risk, analysis of China’s 15FYP Outlook for Water Security & Resiliency 2 Goals, 4 Directives, 8 Actions to prep for a new era of “Water B”:

2026 marks the start of the 15th Five Year Plan 2026-2030 (15FYP) to accelerate China’s march towards “a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful”.

It’s always hard to look for water at the start of the 15FYP but we will make a bold call now: there will be multiple detailed 15FYPs issued for water – from water security to water resilience for 2026-2030.

We’ve pored through the “mothership” 15FYP (just approved in the Two Sessions) as well as multiple Guiding Opinions & plans, major tasks and news announcements during the Two Sessions and throughout 2025. We’ve deciphered the tea leaves and distilled China’s direction of travel in water plus all-out efforts to “ensure water” and endure “water shocks” into: 2 Goals, 4 Directives & 8 Actions.

These are must-reads beyond the water sector as they will impact every sector that needs water as an input in its supply chain + policies also create “little giants” and sizeable opportunities for investments as well as adaptation financing.

The 2 Goals, 4 Directives & 8 Actions in the 15FYP also reveal how China will deal with an increasingly erratic water cycle as well as prepare for the onset of “Water B”, a new water era brought on by our rapidly deteriorating cryosphere. This is especially pertinent as the UN has just declared global water bankruptcy: we’ve irreversibly exhausted many critical water systems to the point that they’ll never be replenished to historic baselines. China’s 15FYP actions & budget to “tai chi” water around to avoid “water bankruptcy” are impressive.

Pollution control is still very much a priority, but we have not singled it out in the 8 Actions. This is because a lot of heavy lifting was done in the 12FYP, 13FYP & 14FYP. Since the “Water Ten Plan”, the proportion of surface water with good water quality (Grade I-III) has jumped from 63.1% in 2014 to 90.4% in 2024, while shares of the worst-quality water (Grade V) has fallen from 9.2% to 0.6%. Of note however, in this Two Sessions, is that China has passed the “Ecological and Environmental Protection Code of Laws” integrating 10 key environmental laws into a single code to avoid conflicts between fragmented law; further closing loopholes & strengthening punishment for polluters. The fact that this is the second “code of laws”; the first being The Civil Code of the People’s Republic of China, underscores the importance of maintaining a Beautiful China.