BLOG

WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, a report on how Afghanistan’s migration crisis will likely contribute to a humanitarian food and water crisis in the foreseeable future:

Background

In this past year, more than 600,000 refugees have returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan and Iran, with thousands more anticipated to return from Europe in the near future. Afghanistan’s migration crisis is projected to see a total of 1.5 million Afghans returning to Afghanistan by the end of this year and international aid organisations have struggled to cope with this unprecedented migration flow. This is increasingly problematic as the United Nations suspended their facilitated voluntary repatriation programme from 1 November 2016 – halting cash grants and closing down repatriation centres – until 1 March 2017 due to the coming winter months.

These migration flows have largely been spurred by increased efforts from Pakistan and Europe. Pakistan aims to repatriate more than two million Afghan refugees by 31 March 2017 – although there is speculation that this may not occur until 2018. National security and rising anti-Afghan sentiment has been cited as a reason for the repatriation programme. Furthermore, the European Union has also recently signed a readmission agreement with the Afghan Government, accelerating the return of at least 80,000 Afghan migrants who have failed to gain asylum in Europe.

Comment

Afghanistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and due to its agricultural economy, this makes nearly 80 per cent of the population extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change and future disruptions in access to water resources. Water demand will increase as the population is expected to grow by more than 11 million people by 2030. The intensifying demand for water resources is further driven by increased rural to urban migration, the burgeoning population and the prospect of unprecedented numbers of people returning to Afghanistan, mainly from Pakistan, Iran and Europe.

Afghanistan is heavily dependent upon the Hindu Kush mountain ranges, as roughly 80 per cent of its water resources come from snow melt in this region. The majority (98 per cent) of this is used for agriculture. Emerging studies suggest that glaciers and snow cover are decreasing due to the effects of climate change, which decreases the water supply potential for countries dependent on the Hindu Kush. Although significant data gaps remain in Afghanistan, due to decades of conflict, current projections and the effects of climate change suggest that it may not be able to meet the future food and water security of the population at a time of immense demographic change.

In Afghanistan, the Kabul River represents 26 per cent of Afghanistan’s total annual river flow and supports over five million Afghans. Kabul, which draws water from the river, is also one of the fastest growing cities in the world with an annual growth rate of 4.74 per cent. With the unprecedented return of Afghan refugees, cities such as Kabul may see increased demand for water resources in addition to the current urbanisation growth rate. The demand for the Kabul basin’s water resources is anticipated to increase with current estimates from 112,000 m³ to roughly 725,000 m³ per day beyond 2050. The United States Geological Survey, in partnership with the Afghan Geological Survey and Ministry of Energy and Water, conducted a study revealing that the water needs of the Kabul Basin may not be able to sustain future demand due to over-extraction caused by growing demand, dwindling water quality due to poor sanitation, as well as increased air temperatures due to global warming which can potentially affect millions of Afghan livelihoods.

The regional diplomatic tensions, particularly between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, have implications for the future food and water security of the region. In November, Pakistan stalled the delivery of over 100,000 tonnes of humanitarian food aid to Afghanistan from India, due to the combination of deteriorating relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as tensions between India and Pakistan. Transboundary rivers shared between Afghanistan’s neighbours are also a potential source of geopolitical tension due to a lack of water sharing agreements, particularly between Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Kunar and Kabul River. The fragile regional diplomacy surrounding Afghanistan threatens long-term food and water security in the region, which is further exacerbated by the drivers of immense demographic change and climate change.

The unprecedented number of refugees returning to Afghanistan will undoubtedly strain the socio-political fabric of the country, as there are already nearly 1.5 million internally displaced people due to armed conflict. The return of Afghan refugees will increase pressures on long-term food and water security, in addition to the existing challenges of a growing, burgeoning population, rural to urban migration and climate change. In addition to this, regional diplomatic relations between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India remain fraught and may become increasingly hostile in the coming decades, exacerbated by the effects of climate change and the absence of water sharing agreements. With all this in mind, it is likely that a humanitarian food and water crisis looms over Afghanistan.