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WATER POLITICS

Courtesy of STRATFOR (subscription required), a detailed analysis of water tensions in India:

Rivers sharing boundaries, whether between other countries or internal states, are traditional points of conflict. Often governed by unpopular treaties, they are the subject of intense negotiations. India’s transboundary rivers are no exception. Political disputes surrounding India’s rivers are made all the more contentious by water stress and scarcity. Growing populations, increased use of groundwater, pollution and general mismanagement of existing resources will constrain India in the long term. And because of a fragmented geography and political system, improved water management policies are difficult to implement. 

Weak monsoon seasons in recent years have made water stress in India more apparent. Even in this normal monsoon season, some of the country’s basins have experienced deficits, including the Cauvery Basin in southern India. On Sept. 5, India’s Supreme Court directed the state of Karnataka to release water amounting to roughly 425 cubic meters per second to neighboring Tamil Nadu state. Though the amount has since been reduced to 300 cubic meters per second, the rulings prompted violent protests across Karnataka state, where Bangalore (India’s foremost information technology hub) is located.

Analysis

On closer inspection, water scarcity is only one of many factors contributing to unrest in Karnataka. Social, political and security issues are also at play. The historically contentious nature of Cauvery Basin paired with uneasy nationwide dynamics is shaping the internal conflict. Uniting India’s heterogeneous and scattered population is a constant challenge for Indian leaders, as seen by Indian President Narendra Modi’s compulsion to balance competing constituencies ahead of state assembly elections in early 2017. The protests in Bangalore in recent days illustrate just how difficult that challenge is.

A Troubled History

The states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have been fighting over the Cauvery River (and its tributaries) since long before India gained independence from the British Empire. Though Kerala and Puducherry states also have territory within the basin boundaries, Karnataka and Tamil, as the largest consumers, have historically driven the conflict over the allotment of water in the basin. Neither Karnataka nor Tamil Nadu have technically had below average rainfall this year, but taken as a whole, the Cauvery Basin has. This only adds to the deficit left by two previous years of poor monsoons. The overall shortage has once more ignited the smoldering conflict in the region.

Karnataka is located upriver from Tamil Nadu and so is technically in the position of power when it comes to directing the movement of water. Many of the major regional water management projects (dams, irrigation systems, etc.) are within Karnataka, though there are a few smaller projects in Tamil Nadu. Total annual discharge of the Cauvery is estimated to be 21.3 billion cubic meters, but this number is highly variable based on location and year. In 2007, following decades of disputes over the river’s water, a tribunal ruled that Tamil Nadu’s allotment of the river was 12 bcm annually and Karnataka’s was 7.6 bcm. The tribunal also ruled that Karnataka must release 5.4 bcm annually to its southeastern neighbor.

A long-standing agreement tempered conflict from 1924 to 1974, but riots broke out again in the 1990s over a Supreme Court ruling over how much water Karnataka was required to release. Again in 2002, a poor monsoon year, the Supreme Court intervened, ruling that Karnataka had to release roughly 260 cubic meters per second to Tamil Nadu. Karnataka complied at first but then stopped when protests erupted once again and violence threatened both states. In 2007, the latest deal over allocation was struck, but it failed to quell the specter of unrest. In 2012, the Supreme Court ordered the release of 255 cubic meters per second of water from Karnataka and, predictably, protests erupted.

Where the Water Goes

Agriculture is by far the largest consumer of water in both Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Other sectors, including the large IT sector in Bangalore, use water, but nowhere near as much. In fact, more than 90 percent of the water taken from the river is used for irrigation. The Mandya and Mysore districts in Karnataka and the Thanjavur district in Tamil Nadu are among the largest canal-fed irrigators in the basin.

When Karnataka agreed — after initially refusing — to release a reduced amount of water through Sept. 20, leaders assured the population that drinking water could be sustained though the decision might affect local agriculture. Changing the amount of water available, however, would not necessarily affect all farms equally. Irrigation use throughout India is rising, especially that supported by groundwater. Even so, less than one-third of all arable land is irrigated in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Reduced availability from the Cauvery will affect agriculture, but the poor weather causing it is just as large a threat to production. Yet the two states, while reliant on the jobs that agriculture provides, are not among India’s largest producers of staple crops. General food availability is not the biggest issue at hand, but discontent among farmers is — and this discontent will continue to fuel tension and unrest.

Still, farmers are not the only ones protesting. Most of the unrest has taken place in urban areas, and further deliberations Sept. 19-20 will likely instigate more problems in cities, especially if decisions are delayed further. Beyond Bangalore, protesters in Mysore marched over the weekend, apparently with the backing of opposition political parties. And farmers and traders attempting to secure political backing called for daylong protests Sept. 19. On the same day, the supervisory committee ordered an additional release of water through the end of the month, at a more modest amount of 85 cubic meters per second. Schools and colleges in the area have already been closed on Sept. 20 as a precaution as the region waits on a subsequent Supreme Court ruling.

Fundamental Concerns  

Though water stress is the apparent cause of recent unrest, there are underlying issues. Interstate rivalries contribute heavily, as do the linguistic and ethnic differences between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu states, and even between Karnataka and the rest of India. Grievances over globalization and rising nationalism are an additional factor.

In many ways, Bangalore is what all of India aspires to become: an information and technology hub home to the offices of Amazon, Facebook, Oracle and Microsoft and giving rise to a wealthy, educated class. But this economic growth has not been uniformly spread, even within the city. Pockets of the local population are frustrated that others have benefited while they have not. 

Language plays an important role, too, and is a core element of identity in India. States are often formed on the basis of linguistic uniqueness. (For instance, Punjabi is spoken in Punjab, Gujarati is spoken in Gujarat and Tamil is spoken in Tamil Nadu.) But not all languages have a state, including Kannada, which is spoken in Karnataka. Thus, Kannada activists have been very active in demonstrations, already feeling alienated as a minority group. Furthermore, that Bangalore was the center of the first wave of violence is no surprise: As a hub of international IT services attracting workers from all over India, uniting the population has been a tough prospect. Along with Tamil speakers and known Tamil Nadu residents, the tech companies and their employees were targeted during the recent riots.

India is inherently divided, presenting a permanent challenge for the central government. And this, in addition to water, has caused unrest in the country’s south. Modi’s government is trying to balance a number of divergent economic, social and political interests. The Cauvery protests just go to show how difficult that task will be.