WATER POLITICS

Key Points

• With forecast population growth, India will face a growing challenge to secure food and water for its population.
• India currently has enough food and water per capita to remain secure, but a lack of storage capacity will hinder the continuation of supply and access.  
• Despite large surpluses in food, India is home to approximately 25 per cent of the world’s hungry.
• Ongoing mismanagement of resources and wasteful behaviour have led to the overexploitation of water resources, particularly groundwater.
• To ensure long-term water security management India must address its under-developed infrastructure and unequal governance structures.
  

Summary

By 2050 India is likely to be home to 1.6 billion people. This population growth will bring with it increased demand for water, food and energy, requiring significant expansions of current infrastructure and resource availability. Factoring in climate change, meeting these demands is likely to present as India’s greatest challenge. The resources required are available to meet this demand; however, inefficient resource use, mismanagement, unequal governance structures and increased vulnerability to climate change, will severely limit the access required. Vulnerable to upstream development in the Himalayan region, future food and water security will require greater regional cooperation. For India, addressing internal structural problems with resource management can reduce this vulnerability considerably…

Water Security

India has an abundance of water within its borders, with 13 major and 46 minor basins. The Ganges-Brahmaputra is the largest basin, covering 34 per cent of India and contributing approximately 59 per cent of the country’s water resources. The major sources of water in India are rainfall and glacial snowmelt contributing to river flows from the Himalayan region.

Water availability and rainfall in India are dependent on two monsoons, the south-west (summer) and north-east (winter). Most rainfall occurs between the months of June and September, with the average annual rainfall approximately 1170mm. There is, however, considerable variation between regions. In the desert region of Rajasthan annual rainfall is often lower than 150mm; while on the Khasi hills of the northeast more than 10,000mm of rain can fall in the space of a few months. 

According to the FAO’s Aquastat, 80 per cent of India has an annual rainfall of 750mm or more. A key challenge for India’s water security, therefore, is not so much physical water scarcity, but mismanagement and limited storage facilities. India’s per capita water storage capacity is 200m³, well below the world average of 900m³ per capita. Estimates suggest as much as 65 per cent of India’s rainwater flows out to sea uncaptured; presenting a huge opportunity for improving the situation by capturing those water flows.   

The current average per capita availability of water is 1,600m³ per year. Population forecasts indicate that by 2050 this average will be reduced to approximately 1,000m³ per year. According to the UN water scarcity occurs when per capita water availability is below 1,000m³ per year. The overexploitation of groundwater, a lack of storage capacity and increasing levels of pollution in a business-as-usual scenario, will greatly increase the risk of severe water insecurity across India.

Rainwater harvesting and programmes to revitalise traditional tank systems present a considerable opportunity to capture and store water during periods of heavy rainfall. The reduced risk of floods, increased aquifer recharge and year round access to greater stores of fresh water are all desirable potential outcomes. Increasing traditional tank volumes and general water storage capacity in India could reduce the pressure on overexploited groundwater resources and provide safer water for human consumption. In Andhra Pradesh programmes to regenerate traditional water tanks have had a significant impact on water access for agriculture, particularly for those unable to afford extending the depth of their wells as groundwater continues to retreat.

India’s groundwater

For those without access to canal or tank irrigation wells are a critical source of water for both agricultural and domestic use. Groundwater irrigation is responsible for approximately 60 per cent of total irrigation and two-thirds of total agricultural production. In recent decades water extraction via electric pumping has proliferated due, in no small part, to federal government policies providing free electricity to rural areas. Introduced in an attempt to close the gap on poverty, the policy has encouraged the over-extraction of groundwater. This has led to a significant depletion in the water table, with open wells and shallow tube wells drying up. As the levels in aquifers continue to fall, the technology and capital required to dig deeper wells limits access to wealthier farmers. According to the World Bank crop failure due to drought and an inability to repay loans for well upgrades, have led to an increase in suicide rates amongst smallholder farmers.

The World Bank estimates that 85 per cent of India’s drinking water supply is dependent on groundwater. Further, current groundwater use is between 70 and 100 per cent of the estimated annual recharge in some basins. In the city of Gurgaon groundwater is all but exhausted, creating severe water insecurity for the population. There have been suggestions the city will cease to exist if water availability is not addressed. By 2020 the city could have as little as 48 litres of water available per person per day (the world standard is 130L). Some predictions suggest that approximately 60 per cent of India’s aquifers will be in a critical condition by 2035.

The development and availability of groundwater resources varies considerably from state to state. In India’s eastern states groundwater is underexploited. Elsewhere, however, including the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujrat and Tamil Nadu, the FAO has reported that groundwater exploitation significantly exceeds recharge rates. The variability of water supply highlights the need for flexible water management practices adaptable to suit the various basins or sub-basins in India. A one-size-fits-all approach to water management is unsustainable; it will fail to recognise unique ecological and water resource influences at the basin level. 

Irrigation

Irrigation for food production has reportedly been used in India for over 5,000 years. In 2010, irrigation accounted for 91 per cent of the total 761km³ of water withdrawn (FAO 2010). Irrigation use predominately occurs in India’s northern states along the Indus and Ganges Rivers. The FAO estimates that 97 per cent of India’s 63 million hectares of irrigated land was serviced by surface irrigation in 2004. Two per cent of land was sprinkler irrigated and the last one per cent used localised irrigation. While the use of sprinkler and localised irrigation methods are increasing, there is considerable room for increased efficiency. There is currently a 40 per cent efficiency gap with groundwater irrigation. As water demand grows across all industry sectors it is crucial that the agricultural sector adopts more productive water practices, reducing waste and limiting potential deficits.

Water pollution

Water pollution will create further challenges for India in both food and water security. India’s water quality is amongst the worst in the world. The UN has ranked the country 120^th out of 122 countries for water quality estimating that 70 per cent of the supply is contaminated. At present 21 per cent of the country’s communicable diseases are transferred by unclean water. Pollution is worst in the middle and lower reaches of rivers; underdeveloped wastewater treatment facilities, industry effluent and agricultural runoff are all significant contributors to this pollution. The Ganges River supports over 450 million people and suffers from significant pollution. The newly elected government has promised to clean the Ganges, but it will require significant investment and long-term management to increase wastewater treatment facilities and change human behaviour. 

Hydro-Potential and Development

India is ranked 5^th in the world in hydro-potential with an estimated 150,000MW generation. At present the hydro-generating capacity of India is over 40,000 MW according to the Central Electric Authority. As many as 300 hydropower projects are planned or under construction in India’s five Himalayan states despite considerable risks to downstream communities, waterways and critical infrastructure. The region is one of the most active earthquake zones in the world and is still forming. Landslides and flash flooding are common during the summer monsoon and casualties are high. News Security Beat reports that India’s plan to develop five or six new dams on the most turbulent stretches of the Himalayan Rivers will result in a dam development approximately every 10km.

In June 2013, an unusually heavy monsoon season caused significant floods in the state of Uttarakhand, killing approximately 6000 people, wiping out villages, destroying highways and infrastructure; they also destroyed a number of hydropower sites. Some reports suggest the total death toll was as high as 30,000 people. Following this disaster two Supreme Court judges issued an order indefinitely halting the provision of permits for hydropower projects in Uttarakhand. In addition, a commission to study the safety and benefits of dam development in the state was formed, with its conclusions likely to be announced later this year.      

Experts suggest that an increase in similar disaster events in the region is likely under climate change impacts and ongoing heavy monsoon periods. Increasing climate variability and the geographic instability of the region, bring into sharp focus the risks that dam construction brings for downstream communities and critical infrastructure.

Climate Change Impacts

India is likely to face increased rainfall variability and longer drought periods under a changing climate. Agricultural production and water availability are dependent on the monsoons; increased variability in precipitation, prolonged drought and more intense weather events will significantly affect the long-term situation. The incidence of natural disasters is also expected to increase in India, affecting agriculture, the health of the population and water security.

The occurrence of the El Niño effect is of particular concern this year; warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean are expected to negatively impact this year’s summer monsoon, reducing water availability and potentially reducing yields. In 2009 El Niño was the cause of the worst drought in India for decades, reducing rice production by 10 million tonnes. Seeding is occurring earlier in some areas this year and stockpiled grains (15 million tonnes more globally than 2009) are on hand to reduce the likelihood of price increases and stock deficits should production fall short.

Policy and Governance

India must find a way of producing more food with less water. As population growth continues and with it increasing demands for food, energy and water, managing those multiple demands will prove challenging. India has a surplus of grain at present, but ensuring that access to food availability does not decline, will require a significant expansion of current production. For this reason water management and resource planning must be considered in an integrated context, involving industry, agriculture and domestic users. Water management is currently the role of Indian states and their respective Irrigation and Water Supply Departments. State-level management has presented both challenges and conflict given the multi-state nature of river basins within the country. A lack of cooperation and co-management between states does little to ensure that ‘best practice’ is reached at a basin level. 

To reduce waste a review of the current water market is necessary. Rates and management differ greatly from one area to the next and overall low tariffs provide little incentive to save water and also produce insufficient funds to maintain systems. To reduce water loss in the system, change wasteful behaviour and ensure long-term water access amid growing demand, water tariffs must be modified. Acknowledging that those most in need of a reliable water source are also the least likely to be able to afford it, means that measures to support universal access must be set in place. 

At the federal level the National Water Policy 2002 provides an overall participatory framework for water management in India. The creation of water user associations (WUAs) is a part of this policy, designed to encourage more inclusive management systems at the local level. Farmer participation in the WUAs is essential if they are to improve the efficiency and productivity of water use and agricultural development through irrigation. The National Groundwater Recharge Master Plan is another important tool for water management. Designed to assess groundwater recharge potential, the plan aims to increase the quantity of available water in urban and rural areas. Project locations however do not necessarily correlate with the areas most in need.

Under the National Food Security Act (NFSA), passed in 2013, the National Food Security Bill includes India’s latest Food Aid Programme. One of the largest in the world, the programme will provide subsidised food to two-thirds of the population, or 800 million people. In the long-term, like most subsidy programmes, it is unlikely to completely address food security. Other current subsidy programmes are handicapped by high levels of corruption and inefficiencies, limiting the number of those in the targeted population who actually receive the benefits. 

Regional Interactions

Given the transboundary nature of many of India’s major river systems, regional governance of water is an important factor in considering national food and water security. The three major river systems of the Tibetan Plateau – the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra – are also the largest rivers flowing through India. Incorporating the headwaters of all three, China has an upstream advantage which is creating diplomatic tensions with India over hydropower development and planned water diversions.

India shares its rivers with China, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Management decisions therefore affect multiple stakeholders within the region. China’s diversion and hydropower plans have the potential to significantly reduce the flow of water into India. India’s hydro-plans, in turn, risk the water security of Pakistan and Bangladesh. To increase cooperation and reduce risks to regional water security, multilateral cooperation is essential. China in particular is a significant absence from regional dialogue and cooperation, preferring unilateral actions.

Reducing India’s vulnerability to upstream development requires significant changes to domestic water management. A focus on water use efficiency and rainwater capture and storage has the potential to meet deficits which may arise from water diversions or upstream hydropower projects. Addressing widespread levels of pollution and underdeveloped wastewater treatment and sanitation is also urgently required. India faces considerable challenges as continued growth puts further strain on available food and water. A lack of resources however, is not necessarily the problem. Resource mismanagement, underdeveloped infrastructure and unequal governance structures, are at the heart of Indian water and food insecurity. Addressing these challenges is infinitely harder than engineering hydropower and water-transfer projects.