WATER POLITICS

Tehran, Iran’s bustling capital with a population of nearly 9.8 million, is grappling with a silent yet devastating crisis: land subsidence. This phenomenon, largely driven by mismanagement of water resources and excessive extraction of groundwater, is causing widespread damage to the city’s infrastructure, environment, and the lives of its residents.

Dr. Mehdi Zareh, a professor at the International Research Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, highlights the severity of the issue in an article published in Arman newspaper on November 28, 2024, titled “Tehran Region Under the Risk of Land Subsidence.” His analysis sheds light on the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to this growing challenge.

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Iran’s Climatic and Water Management Challenges

Iran’s geographical location in arid and semi-arid zones leaves it with an average annual rainfall of just 250 millimeters. Yet, rather than adapting to these natural constraints, decades of mismanagement and unsustainable water practices have exacerbated the crisis. According to reports, over 97% of Iran’s water resources are being used unsustainably, leading to severe groundwater depletion.

In Tehran, this has manifested in alarming rates of land subsidence, particularly in the southern and southwestern districts. Dr. Zareh notes that areas such as districts 9, 10, and 16 through 20 are sinking at rates exceeding 20 centimeters annually, putting over three million residents at risk. Critical urban infrastructure—including pipelines, roads, and utilities—is already under threat.

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Overpopulation and Unsustainable Urban Growth

Tehran’s ecological capacity is estimated to support a maximum of 5 million people. However, economic centralization and a lack of job opportunities in other cities have spurred uncontrolled migration, swelling the capital’s population to nearly double its sustainable limit.

This overpopulation has strained water resources and contributed to a host of other issues, including severe air pollution, inefficient waste management, and declining quality of life. Air pollution alone is responsible for over 4,000 premature deaths annually in Tehran.

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Land Subsidence Across Iran: A National Crisis

While Tehran’s subsidence rates are alarming, the problem extends far beyond the capital. Recent studies reveal that approximately 3.5% of Iran’s land area is experiencing significant subsidence due to groundwater overuse. Key regions include:

• Kerman Province (Rafsanjan District): Subsidence rates exceeding 35 centimeters annually make it one of the hardest-hit areas.
• Tehran, Isfahan, and Khorasan Razavi Provinces: Subsidence rates surpassing 10 centimeters per year threaten urban and agricultural infrastructure.
• Emerging Sinkholes: In Gorgan, a sinkhole recently swallowed two vehicles, underscoring the immediate risks posed by ground instability.

Iran’s groundwater resources are being depleted at an unsustainable rate of 1.7 billion cubic meters annually, with replenishment potentially taking centuries or millennia.

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Consequences and Urgency for Action

The repercussions of land subsidence are multifaceted and severe:

1. Infrastructure Damage: Sinking ground jeopardizes roads, railways, airports, and pipelines. Tehran itself is sinking at a rate seven times higher than typical geological expectations.
2. Environmental Degradation: Subsidence disrupts ecosystems, exacerbates desertification, and destabilizes the landscape, leading to cracks and sinkholes.
3. Social Impacts: Urban residents face increased risks to life and property, while rural communities grapple with declining agricultural productivity.

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A Call for Sustainable Management

Addressing Tehran’s land subsidence crisis requires decisive and immediate action. Experts propose several measures:

• Sustainable Water Usage: Reducing water consumption in agriculture, industry, and urban settings is critical.
• Groundwater Recharge: Strategies such as rainwater harvesting and managed aquifer recharge can help slow depletion.
• Urban Planning Reforms: Decentralizing economic activities and controlling population growth in Tehran could alleviate pressure on the city’s resources.
• Climate Adaptation: Proactive planning to cope with Iran’s climatic realities is essential to prevent further ecological disasters.

However, the likelihood of comprehensive action remains uncertain. The current regime’s history of neglecting environmental priorities raises doubts about its ability to effectively address this crisis.

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Conclusion

Tehran’s land subsidence crisis is both an environmental warning and a reflection of deep-rooted management failures in Iran. If left unaddressed, the phenomenon threatens not only the city’s infrastructure but also the livelihoods of millions of residents. As natural resources dwindle and urban pressures mount, Tehran stands on the brink of a dire future—one that demands immediate, collective, and sustainable interventions.