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December 18th, 2011
Via The Denver Post, a report on a some new research examining the effect of shrinking Himalayan glaciers on Asia’s water supply:
The U.S. government is deploying Colorado scientists to lead a $5.4 million effort to gauge the impact of shrinking Himalayan glaciers on water supplies across Asia.
The question: Are rivers that sustain more than 2 billion people fed primarily by water from rainfall, by seasonal snowmelt or by the glaciers that are vulnerable to climate change?
A significant drop in water supply could lead to food shortages and, according to U.S. Agency for International Development officials, create new conflicts in already volatile areas.
The high-mountain glaciers, seen as water towers for Asia, have been shrinking at a rate of 0.5 percent a year — similar to glaciers in South America’s Andes and the European Alps​. As Asia’s glaciers recede, Chinese and Indian governments are moving to control headwaters with at least 19 proposed dam projects, adding to eight or so existing major dams.
U.S. intelligence agencies were among those interested in enlisting University of Colorado senior research scientist Richard Armstrong and geography professor Mark Williams.
“If you cannot plan for effective use of water resources, you’re in trouble,” Armstrong said last week, after launching the project in Kazakhstan with Asian policymakers and scientists. “There are irrigation systems on these rivers. Hydroelectric plants. They need to understand where their water comes from in order to plan with respect to climate change.”
Hard data has been scarce, and research is difficult at elevations up to 18,000 feet, across a 10-nation region. Project leaders plan to send researchers into Karakoram, Hindu Kush​, Pamir, Tein Shan and Himalayan mountain watersheds covering 1 million square miles.
The researchers will collect samples of snow, river water, groundwater and glacier-melt water in 6-ounce plastic bottles that will be mailed back to CU. Investigators at an Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research lab in Boulder will use spectrometers and other instruments to analyze the water’s origins.
Glacier waters’ trail
All samples will contain H2O. But the oxygen in snow gains mass as snow becomes glacier ice. The changes are reflected in different numbers of neutrons, which become signatures used to identify glacier water in rivers.
“We have instruments that are so incredibly sensitive, they measure the differences in mass,” Williams said.
Among the rivers starting in the Himalayas, the Indus, Amu Darya​, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow are critical sources for people in nations including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan.
China’s access to headwaters has set off anxieties because China recently has wielded its control over other natural resources such as rare-earth metals strategically.
China’s potential chokehold over water “is a concern, not often expressed,” Armstrong said. “But it is there.”
Chinese researchers are collaborating in the project.
Four years ago, an international scientific report predicted the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers by 2035 and sparked a ruckus. That’s been debunked.
Williams said the initial indications from limited data suggest glaciers supply about 5 percent of the water in the Ganges and as much as 30 percent of the Indus, which sustains Pakistan. Millions of livelihoods may be affected depending on the true role of glaciers.
“If it’s 10 percent, and they lose that, it’s a big deal but not huge. There are adaptive strategies,” Williams said. “But if glacier melt is 50 percent of the water, that’s a game-changer — meaning that if the glaciers disappear and you lose that ice, you’re in a whole lot of trouble.”
USAID worked through the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences to line up scientists at CU’s National Snow and Ice Data Center and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research.
Risk of food shortages
“If there are significant changes in water supplies in the region, a greater number of people will be displaced and will suffer from food shortages. By investing in this research now, we will have a better understanding of what lies in the future, and utilizing the resulting data can allow parties to take action to prevent widespread human suffering,” USAID project manager Mary Melnyk said.
“Prevention will save taxpayers money as it will reduce the costs of humanitarian assistance,” she said. “Also, if water supplies decrease, there could be an increase in conflicts further destabilizing parts of South Asia that are experiencing conflict and strife, or create conflicts among central Asian countries where none currently exists.”
Any findings on climate change and water supplies will be shared across Central Asia, where local researchers will conduct much of the work, Armstrong said.
Better water data will drive “logical, informed planning,” he said. “Anytime we contribute to the political stability in these parts of the world, it’s an achievement, and it makes for a more stable and peaceful world.”