BLOG
August 7th, 2024
Via Modern Diplomacy, an article on Pakistan’s water crisis:
Water security has emerged as a potent non-traditional security concern for Pakistan, endangering the two key referent objects of security: ‘state’ & ‘human’. Water security is grounded on adequate water availability and quality for sustainable socio-economic development; diminution of water-related disasters and water-borne pollution; and curtailment of water-related conflicts that may precipitate from water sharing between and within the states. With respect to Pakistan, the alarming level of water shortage and deteriorating water quality signify the predicament of water security in near future.
The depletion of water resources of the country has not cropped up out of the blue, nay is the consequence of amalgamation of various factors. The water-intensive and dilapidated irrigation system, inadequate water infrastructure, and sheer neglect of the successive governments regarding water governance have paved the way for the calamity. Most importantly, the ballooning population remains factor of concern with mammoth potential to increase the demand that in turn would strain the meagre water supply. According to 2015 International Monetary Fund’s report on ‘Water Security Challenges’, by 2025 the water demand-supply gap in country would surge to 83 Million Acre Field (MAF) as the demand is predicted to reach 274 MAF with the unvarying supply of water at 191MAF. Another pertinent factor is the climate change that will bring about the shrinkage of hydrological reserves on one hand while catalysing the water-related disasters on the other. As per Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan ranks as the 5th most vulnerable state to the long term ramifications of Climate change such as depletion of Himalayan glaciers, alteration in timing and intensity of precipitation, and reappearance of the drought and floods. Furthermore, the contamination of water by sewerage, industrial effluents and agricultural run-off also pose a formidable challenge to the water security given the fact that 80% of population is deprived of access to clean water.
The water profile of Pakistan is illustrative of the past, present and future grave aspects concerning the water security. From being a country abundant in water resources, it has drastically changed into ‘’water stressed’ country. In 2018, a report published by the Pakistan Council for Water Relations (PCRWR) stated that in 1990 Pakistan reached the ‘water stress line’ and the situation further exacerbated in 2005 when it traversed the ‘water scarcity line’. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranked third amongst the 36 states experiencing the severe water shortage. The per capita annual availability of water has dwindled from 5,650 cubic metres to 908 cubic metres during 1951-2017 which is anticipated to decrease to 860 cubic metres by 2025. If an efficacious water conservation strategy is not enacted, water availability may reduce to 500 cubic metres by 2040, thus leading Pakistan towards absolute water scarcity.
Water politics over the Indus River Basin System between Pakistan’s provinces, and India and Pakistan will also threaten the water security in the coming decade. The normal flow of Indus Basin has plummeted to 40%, which is primarily due to climate change. Resultantly, Sindh and Punjab are facing the worst water shortage causing tensions to mount as each side blames the other for apportioning its share. Fear of drought prevails as the water levels in Tarbela and Mangla Dam have reached an abysmal level. Moreover, control of water headworks in India and the construction of various run-of-the-river dams such as the Kishanganga project will amplify water scarcity in Pakistan.
Water security of Pakistan is intrinsically linked to the human security and state security. With respect to human security, water remains a pre-requisite for food, economic, environmental and health security. Moreover, water crisis has the potential to threaten the traditional security of Pakistan (in terms of wars over water between India and Pakistan). The grim futuristic picture of the water security of Pakistan indicates its lethality for masses and state.
Given the complexity of the issue, necessary interventions shall be made at individual, national, and regional level. At national level, a paradigm shift from sectoral to cross-sectoral policy approach is indispensable for the effective conservation, utilization, and management of water resources. Drip irrigation system for reducing water wastage and multipurpose dams for storing water, flood control, and irrigation can prove instrumental. It is also important to consider the water pricing regime to avoid over-consumption; besides, the country should focus on water re-cycling and strict water management for overcoming contamination of water. For curbing the adverse impact of climate change, adaptation and mitigation strategies should be implemented. Most importantly, political education is required to deal with the key threat to water security, the population bomb. At regional level, improvement of water relations with India under Bharatiya Janata Party government seems a distant dream, however, Pakistan must incessantly strive for Hydro-diplomacy. For targeting the individual level, it is crucial to organize awareness campaigns and sensitize the disastrous repercussions of water insecurity.