WATER POLITICS

Executive Summary

Increasing global water stress poses a threat to both human and national security, making it essential to address these challenges to protect US national security and promote global stability.

Primary Observations:

• The world is facing an increasing number of transboundary water disputes.
• Non-state armed groups, including gangs and jihadists, are empowered by water scarcity and drought.
• Water scarcity can delegitimize state authority, shifting geopolitical power structures.
• Declining rainfall may drive the production of drugs by promoting the growth of crops such as coca and opium.
• Water will continue to be weaponized by state and non-state actors.

Primary Recommendations for the US Government:

• Leverage American private-sector expertise to enhance water-related resilience.
• Utilize American-made water technologies in drought-prone areas.
• Share US expertise in water management.
• Assist with water-related disputes as a mediator.

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Introduction

Water stress is a rising global challenge. As of 2016, 4 billion people annually faced extreme water scarcity for one month of the year.¹ By 2050, water demand is expected to increase by 20% to 25%, placing an additional 1 billion people in areas of high-water stress, with most conflicts containing a water-related element.² Given the existing and future implications of water stress and scarcity, this should be of huge concern to security practitioners.

Figure 1: Current Global Water Risk ³

Key Security Concerns

Expanding Transboundary Water Disputes

Figure 2: Number of Water-Related Conflicts After 1800 ⁴

Water conflicts are intensifying, particularly over dam construction on major rivers such as the Nile and Mekong. With 153 countries sharing water sources that account for 60% of global flow, disputes threaten regional stability in places as diverse as Central Asia⁵ and East Africa⁶.⁷ For example, in East Asia, China is increasingly restricting water in the Mekong River, which endangers downstream neighbors, including Thailand and Vietnam, with whom the United States is engaging in strategic partnerships. In 2023, water-related conflicts rose 50% to 347 from 231 in 2022, affecting US allies and empowering adversaries.⁸ This dynamic is embodied by the April 2025 attack in Kashmir, which prompted India to suspend its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, which Pakistan has considered an “act of war.” ⁹

Empowering Terrorists and Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs)

Jihadist groups and non-state actors exploit worsening drought conditions to recruit members.¹⁰ The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) drew roughly three times the number of fighters from semiarid areas than from riparian ones.¹¹ . In Mexico, cartels profit from water shortages by stealing and reselling public supplies.¹² Similarly, state failures to provide water allow groups like Hezbollah and jihadist-linked water mafias in Pakistan to gain local influence.

Delegitimizing State Authority

Worsening water scarcity fuels protests against governments from Iran¹³ to Morocco¹⁴ to India,¹⁵ sometimes risking state collapse. For example, since Somalia’s civil war began in the 1990s, climate-worsened droughts and poor water infrastructure have devastated Somalis’ agricultural livelihoods,¹⁶ driving humanitarian crises. Further, armed conflict exacerbates the severity of drought in the country, contributing to chronic vulnerabilities of Somalis and underlining the need for stable governance and the restoration of peace.¹⁷ Water stress and poor water management were contributing factors to the Syrian Civil War.¹⁸ This instability in both US partners and adversaries shifts global power balances and poses a threat to American geopolitical interests.

Enabling the Proliferation of Drugs and Crime

Declining rainfall drives farmers in Colombia and Afghanistan to cultivate coca¹⁹ and opium²⁰ respectively, which are water-intensive, fueling the drug trade and increasing civil unrest and migration. Simultaneously, underemployed agricultural workers become increasingly vulnerable to recruitment by cartels and gangs across Latin America.²¹

Accelerating Cross-Border Migration

Water scarcity in underdeveloped countries is contributing to mass migration.²² With farming-dependent communities facing water shortages, millions move to cities with inadequate infrastructure, further fueling migration to the United States. In Central America’s Dry Corridor, drier years (2012–2018) saw 70.7% more US-bound migration.²³

Normalizing Water Weaponization

Non-state actors and state forces regularly use water as a weapon in conflicts. The US Intelligence Community first assessed the state use of water as a political tool in its 2012 Global Water Security assessment.²⁴ Russia has destroyed Ukrainian dams to hinder advances, coordinating similar tactics with the Assad regime in Syria.²⁵ Recognizing the role of water in warfare is crucial for US planning and military strategy. Understanding the use of water as a weapon is key to US planning and warfighting capabilities.²⁶

Recommendations for US Policymakers

To address the range of national security threats identified above, we recommend the following actions for the US government:

1. Utilize America’s Unique Corporate Expertise: With water supplies ebbing in many places, efficient use is vital. American companies, including Coca-Cola,²⁷ Google,²⁸ and Ford,²⁹ with their wealth of expertise in sustainable and efficient water use, are uniquely placed to help countries “drought-proof” infrastructure³⁰ and rein in water pollution,³¹ among other interventions. 
2. Leverage US Water Technology: US companies lead in technologies that water-scarce communities need. Innovations like drip irrigation³² and drought-resistant seeds from the US agriculture sector can help farmers sustain their livelihoods, reducing migration and instability. These technologies improve effectiveness and can ultimately cut costs: drip irrigation, for example, can save up to 60% more water³³ than other irrigation practices, has lower operating costs, and will improve yields.
3. Share US Expertise in Water Management: With experience navigating complex water disputes, US agencies like the Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) can provide valuable guidance on Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM),³⁴ helping countries address emerging water challenges before they result in more expensive³⁵ related difficulties, ranging from health crises to food shortages.³⁶ Furthermore, China has spent a cumulative $1.053 trillion³⁷ on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 2013 to 2023, with large sums dedicated to infrastructure. Leveraging American expertise in water management can guard against growing Chinese influence.
4. Provide Mediation Assistance: While not a direct mediator, the US, under President Dwight Eisenhower, along with the World Bank, facilitated the signing of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan in 1960.³⁸ This treaty was considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally despite longstanding tensions and sporadic war. Now that the treaty stands in abeyance due to unilateral withdrawal by India, the US has a unique opportunity to provide strong mediation assistance to ease tension between these nuclear powers. In 2011, Ethiopia began constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River, despite strong opposition from downstream Egypt, which fears the dam threatens its water security.³⁹ In 2019–2020, during the first Trump Administration, the US Department of the Treasury led negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in an effort to resolve the dispute.⁴⁰ Although most parties ultimately rejected the US-drafted agreement in February 2020 and talks stalled mainly due to US attention shifting to addressing the COVID-19 pandemic,⁴¹ this episode underscores the potential for US leadership in mediating high-stakes transboundary water conflicts. In fact, Sudan’s foreign minister noted that the February talks yielded 90% of an agreement, with just two outstanding issues.⁴² This offers a promising model for future diplomatic engagement.
5. Deploy American Predictive and Early-Warning Capabilities: The US Geological Survey (USGS) has helped to establish gauging networks for weather and weather data. Utilizing tools like the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET),⁴³ NOAA’s Drought Information System,⁴⁴ NASA’s Landsat Program,⁴⁵ GRACE satellites,⁴⁶ and other US space-based assets, we can predict water-related violence and identify regions at risk. This enables early intervention to mitigate conflict and instability.

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Conclusion

Water stress already has clear impacts on US national security interests as well as global stability, and these challenges will only grow as water supplies shift. However, the US can play a key role in mitigating these challenges by leveraging its wealth of resources and expertise across its private and public sectors. While this may require mobilization of capital, the costs of inaction, both monetary and in the form of security implications, will be much higher. Acting now will mitigate US security risks and contribute to a more stable world.

About the Authors

Marcus D. King is Professor of the Practice in Environment and International Affairs at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service and Earth Commons Institute. He is also the Vice-Chair and Secretary of the Council on Strategic Risks Governing Board, and a Non-resident Senior Fellow and member of the Advisory Board at the Center for Climate and Security.

Eleanor Greenbaum was a research assistant to Marcus King at the time of writing.

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Notes