WATER POLITICS

A new report “No Water, No Growth 2 – Rising “mother” river risks threaten half the total GDP of 16 Asian countries” by CWR and China’s national research Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources, a part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IGSNRR-CAS), reveals that nearly 2bn people and US$10.3trn worth of GDP as well as 800GW+ of power assets across Asia’s 10 “mother” rivers are at risk from escalating climate risks and deepening water stress.

As these rivers are key drivers of development & growth, the report warns of threats to national economic, water, food & energy security for the 16 countries that rely on them – from China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal to Bangladesh.

This urgency is underscored by the fact that Asia has grown tremendously in the last decade. But much of this growth has been driven by 10 key rivers – the Amu Darya, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, Irrawaddy, Mekong, Salween, Tarim, Yangtze & Yellow.

“Today, almost 1 in 2 Asians rely on water from 10 rivers that flow from our Himalayan Water Towers. GDP generated in these river basins now account for almost half the total GDP of the 16 countries, up from a third in our earlier 2018 report” warned Debra Tan, the Director & Head of CWR. “As dependence will only rise with urbanisation & development, these 16 countries will face a difficult future if rivers run dry. This could happen sooner than we think as all key components of river flow from glacial melt, snowfall and monsoon patterns are already changing today,” said Tan.

Given what’s at stake, this updated report, building on CWR’s 2018 publication “No Water, No Growth – Does Asia have enough water to develop?” (NWNG1), calls for urgent action to curate source-to-sea waternomic roadmaps for each river to ensure economic & financial resilience as well as water, energy & food security in this unprecedented era of rising climate & water risks.

“Asia faces a grave triple threat today… 1) little water to develop; 2) increasing reliance and clustering of socio-economic risks in our river basins; and 3) increasingly unreliable & uncertain river flows/extremes due to climate change. Worse still, we are not cutting emissions on time so these climate impacts are intensifying & occurring sooner than we think, outpacing adaptation efforts. We have less time to prepare for these mounting risks, so we must act now. And we cannot fail as rivers carry so much more than water, they carry lives and livelihoods ” said Tan.

Check out risk exposure by river & by country:

• Map of the 10 HKH River Basins
• At-a-glance people, power & trillions of $$$ at risk
• Key shifts in exposure since NWNG1
• Key river highlights & takeaways
• 5 key recommendations
• Very little water supports a lot of stuff – people, power & trillions of $$$ at risk for each of the 10 HKH Rivers
• At-a-glance movements in population & GDP since NWNG1 for each of the 10 HKH Rivers
• Transboundary rivers:
  • At-a-glance shares across the 10 HKH Rivers of population, GDP, power assets, water use & resources
  • Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus & Mekong key highlights

• National dependence on 10 HKH Rivers: water, people, $$$ & power
• 3 Risk Groups – balancing waternomic & powergen risks
• 3 Risk Groups – overview of exposure for each of the HKH 16 countries

Check out the Full Report, Press Release & Media Pack.

“This GDP add of US$6trn in the 10 river basins in less than a decade is massive – over three-quarters of this or US$4.6trn is driven by the Yangtze alone; for perspective Japan’s 2023 GDP was only US$4.3trn.” “Only 3-10% of the Mekong & Brahmaputra are utilised so there should be plenty of water for everyone to develop. Also, projections show large upticks in water from glacier melt, rainfall & river flow to 2060 for both rivers. So, we are likely to be dealing with too much rather than too little water , which ironically dams can help alleviate.” “Politics aside, power-hungry Asia with limited per capita water resources should make use of under-utilised rivers and tap their enormous hydropower capacity to fast track transition and stave off risks like mountain hazards and rivers running dry.” Dr CT Low, Geospatial & Science Lead, report co-author

“Even at peak flow, five rivers each have less water than Lake Erie, the smallest of the Great Lakes of North America, yet they support massive economies.Liquidity is tight – the Indus at max flow won’t even fill up one Lake Erie but it supports 91% of Pakistan’s population & over half of its GDP. The Yellow won’t even fill up half a Lake Erie, yet it houses 126mn people & generates US$1.3trn of GDP for China.” “Over 6x the water is used to generate a dollar per resident in the Ganges than the Yellow…so India must prioritise Ganges waternomics to up river performance. At the same time, it should also alleviate pressure on the Ganges & Indus by tapping “less utilised rivers” like the Brahmaputra for growth.”