Looming Climate Security Crises in Iran September 13th, 2023
Via Centre for Climate & Security, a look at how – as water runs dry in Iran – security and climate risks escalate:
In Iran, projected climate change impacts through 2040 are on course to combine with poor governance and the impacts of international sanctions to jeopardize stability and regional security. Decades of isolation, corruption, and nationalism have led the Iranian government to prioritize food self-sufficiency, entrenching a reliance on water-intensive agriculture. This has resulted in a national water deficit that already harms populations and fuels state violence, with the Iranian government cracking down on water and agriculture-related protests and casting blame abroad. Climate change will further decimate Iran’s food and water security—with a diminishing water supply and reductions in country-wide average wheat yields of up to 10 percent by 2040—likely fueling socioeconomic crises and exacerbating government repression, particularly in rural and ethnic minority communities. Beyond Iran’s borders, projected water challenges will compound strains on Iran’s relationships with its neighbors including Türkiye, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf States. Iran is one of the top ten global emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2) but has not joined the Paris Agreement, and Iran will likely turn to more emissions-intensive adaptation measures, especially amid isolation and sanctions.
For policymakers in the United States, whole-of-government actions to manage and prepare for these security challenges include:
Supporting diplomacy and environmental cooperation between Iran and its neighbors.
Tailoring sanctions to mitigate obstacles to water- and energy-efficiency investments and disaster response in Iran.
Analyzing the implications of increasing climate-driven political instability and violence in Iran.
A Country Already Dying of Thirst
Iran’s water resources have steadily declined over decades, so much so that the country has been in a state of water stress for decades. For 20 years, Iran’s water demand has been greater than 80 percent of its freshwater supply, inching dangerously close to reaching its supply limit. The current ratio of over 80 percent is already categorized as extremely high stress, and this is only projected to worsen in the coming years.
Iran has used subsidies and trade policy to pursue a self-sufficient agricultural sector, which has led to unsustainable water use, with agricultural demands accounting for over 92 percent of total water use. Much of this is lost to inefficient surface irrigation practices, and the small remaining fraction goes to drinking water and industrial use. Iran’s desire for self-sufficiency in agriculture, reinforced by international sanctions, has contributed to a narrowing gap between water supply and demand that has been called “water bankruptcy.” Since the 1980s, irrigated agriculture has increased and the number of wells—including over 400,000 illegal wells—for pumping groundwater have grown nearly four-fold, worsening conditions of water scarcity, depleting groundwater supplies, and eroding culture tied to traditional agricultural livelihoods.
Meanwhile, Iran has built dozens of dams at an accelerating pace since the 1990s to capture water resources for hydroelectric power, irrigation, and water supply, exacerbating water scarcity in regions downstream. Many of the dams are associated with corrupt construction networks affiliated with the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a U.S.-designated terrorist group which has translated its control of water resources into influence within Iranian politics.
This entry was posted on
Wednesday, September 13th, 2023 at
12:06 pm and is filed under
Iran. You can follow any responses to this entry through the
RSS 2.0 feed.
Both comments and pings are currently closed.
