WATER POLITICS

It was cold and quiet around 4am on 7 November, when James (last name withheld) shut the door and led his heavily pregnant wife and their two children, under the age of six, onto a narrow path flanked by tall, dry grass. He balanced a box of their clothes on his head and held his wife’s hand as she carried the lamp that faintly lit the way.

For two days, they had lived in fear as distant gunshots echoed from the Lake Chad islands, where Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) – rival Boko Haram factions – have been fighting for control. The tension spiked when news spread that suspected fighters had butchered a pregnant woman near the islands the previous day.

Fleeing at dawn

“Parts of the baby in her womb were exposed,” said James, referring to the woman who was killed near one of the seven islands. Fearing his wife could suffer the same fate, he began gathering a few belongings before leaving their home for his parents’ place near Maiduguri to seek safety.

Parts of the baby in her womb were exposed

Residents had learned it was safest to travel at dawn, when jihadist activity was usually lower. That’s why James rushed his family out early.

As fighting erupted in November between Boko Haram and ISWAP, hundreds from both sides have been feared dead and many more injured. Aware that the violence could spill into their communities around the Lake Chad Basin, residents on the Nigerian side began evacuating their homes in search of safety.

“The jihadists have been fighting without any interruption from the security forces of any of the countries near the islands,” said James. “We do not know if they are deliberately avoiding the terror groups, but it is certain that the winner will decide our future.”

Embittered rivals

Experts and residents in Nigeria’s northeast and the Lake Chad area describe the Boko Haram-ISWAP clash as an endless feud between embittered factions. Both trace their roots to Abubakar Shekau, who militarised Boko Haram after its founder was extrajudicially killed in 2009.

In 2015, Shekau pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, known then as ISIS, briefly turning Boko Haram into ISWAP.

Ideological splits soon forced him back to Boko Haram in the following year, while ISIS-aligned fighters continued as ISWAP. In 2021, ISWAP forces cornered Shekau and forced him to commit suicide, triggering Boko Haram’s decline, though ISWAP was also partly repealed by multinational militaries.

Since 2009, the groups have killed an estimated 45,000 people and displaced more than three million, with thousands – mostly women – raped, kidnapped, enslaved, or forced into marriage, according to data from international agencies. Despite their shared brutality, they continue to battle one another for territory, engaging in tit-for-tat clashes that largely play out without security forces stepping in.

Their fighters on the islands are determined and well-supported by mercenaries from Chad and Libya

Amadu Mohammed, 62, a fisherman who has spent over 40 years fishing in Lake Chad and River Niger, tells The Africa Report that the recent clash between Boko Haram and ISWAP is driven more by a struggle for territorial control than by ideology.

“The Lake Chad Basin is a crucial corridor,” he says. “Whoever wins the islands wins the money [from the taxes on fishermen, farmers and pastoralists], the food, the smuggling routes and the power in the whole region,” says Mohammed. “That’s why they are killing each other over it right now, even more than when they fight the few armies on the islands.”

“If it was an ideological battle, while the war rages, fighters from both sides would have intensified spreading their ideologies in villages where they control and in rival villages,” he says.

Sources close to the groups tell The Africa Report that Boko Haram is gaining the upper hand. “Their fighters on the islands are determined and well-supported by mercenaries from Chad and Libya,” one source says, clarifying that ISWAP’s bases were first hit by Nigerian and Chadian forces before the war began.

ISWAP steps up assaults

Boko Haram has focused on seizing control of the Lake Chad Basin, a battle it claims to have already won. ISWAP, meanwhile, has stepped up attacks on surrounding villages, launching ambushes, expanding its reach, and abducting and taxing residents.

The long days’ clashes have been fierce, but villagers around the Lake Chad islands suspect that security forces are deliberately steering clear of the area. James and 20 others tell The Africa Report that military presence in the islands and surrounding villages, particularly in Borno State, is far lower than in towns and cities.

“It’s not safe,” says James. “I could not risk keeping my family near Lake Chad, where the jihadists are violently competing for control and the security forces seem to have no interest in their clashes.”

The Nigerian ministry of defence did not respond to the multiple requests for comment.

Whenever the fighting eases, reaches a stalemate, or ISWAP retreats from Boko Haram’s onslaught in Lake Chad, eyewitnesses and local residents say ISWAP fighters often return to nearby vulnerable communities, attacking anyone they encounter and looting to vent their frustration.

Four members of vigilante groups in the Maiduguri–Damboa corridor tell The Africa Report that ISWAP has clearly deployed its elite units across Borno State, adding that the group’s operations in towns, major forests, and villages have been far-reaching.

“ISWAP has been attacking military bases, and for a group that claims to protect and govern people, hitting the army this way is both psychological and physical warfare,” says Mala Shehu, a vigilante in Maiduguri. “It is a deliberate attempt to humiliate the military and show it cannot match their strength or protect communities in Lake Chad.”

Growing up under the shadow of terrorism

Since terrorism erupted, cities and towns in Borno State have been deeply affected. Fifteen residents in Maiduguri, the capital city, tell The Africa Report that the ideologies of Boko Haram and ISWAP have seeped so far into the community that removing them now feels nearly impossible.

“It’s been a ‘hot’ 16 years,” says Abdullah, who was born in the month and year Boko Haram’s founder Mohammed Yusuf was killed. “I have not experienced any life outside the terror and counterterrorism atmosphere of the state.”

Many of Abdullah’s peers grew up under curfews, witnessing assaults and hearing explosions. In several Islamic schools, teachers have taught against the violent doctrines of jihadist groups, yet extremists’ beliefs are still within the Lake Chad Basin. In some villages near Maiduguri, residents remain sympathetic to the jihadists’ cause, a worrying indicator for troops on the ground.

When US President Donald Trump asked his defence ministry to prepare for possible operations in Nigeria over alleged killings of Christians – claims the government denies – ISWAP mocked him and urged West African Muslims to “unite” against “American crusaders”, a call that resonates in its controlled areas.

Musa (last name withheld), 17, in a pro-ISWAP territory near Chad says he would gladly fight on the jihadist group against any US incursion. “It is my obligation to fight for Yan Daula,” he says, a reference to ISWAP that is common among those who accept or respect the governance of the group’s self-styled state.

Last week, ISWAP ambushed a joint military and Civilian Joint Task Force team led by Brigadier General Mohammed Uba. He briefly escaped but was later captured and killed.

A source said his capture was partly intended as propaganda to showcase ISWAP’s strength, a message already widely believed in pro-ISWAP areas, including Musa’s community.

The Nigerian Army did not respond to The Africa Report’s request for comment.

Watch out

Boko Haram is currently not matching ISWAP’s reach or presence within Borno State, but its self-proclaimed victory on the Lake Chad islands reminds many of its past strength and the possibility of a comeback.

Still, some remain unconvinced, given ISWAP’s impressive assaults on military bases and continued control in forests and other areas within the state.

James and his family rely on news media and X for updates from experts and news channels on the situation in Lake Chad. He has not returned to his own home and continues to stay with his family at his parents’ house.

“We believe ISWAP is primarily focused on attacking troops, and once they’ve done so, they will resume fighting Boko Haram in Lake Chad,” he says. “Given this, my home there isn’t safe for my family.”

“And if the Nigerian military fails to effectively counter the insurgency, these terror groups will keep determining our fate.”