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June 10th, 2025
A report from NGO Mercy Corps warns that Kabul could completely run out of water by 2030 owing to a combination of stressors, driven by over-extraction due to rapid urbanization, climate change, and widespread contamination of existing supply. Should the forecast come to pass, Kabul would become the first city to face an existential crisis due to water supply in the modern age.
Why It Matters
Perfect Storm of Scarcity: Two takeaways can be gleaned from Kabul’s experience. The first is the impact of climate change, which is nothing new for Afghanistan and has been reflected in the numerous water conflicts and droughts of the past decade. Kabul itself is particularly vulnerable because its water supply derives from glacial melts, making it both seasonally volatile and susceptible to climate fluctuations. This supply-side crunch is then exacerbated by long-standing governance issues reaching back decades: wasteful water systems and irrigation that has not been modernized despite the huge aid outlays of the NATO era, a lack of water conservation efforts, and uncontrolled urbanization and well-drilling. The result is an uncontrolled race-to-the-bottom where water becomes increasingly scarce and expensive; barring a course correction, shortages will eventually trigger new outward migrations from the Kabul area.
First But Not Last: Kabul may be the first modern city to face the prospect of completely running out of water, but it’s unlikely to be the last as the stressors found here can also be found elsewhere. A recent Rand report examines five other global cities that were at risk of running out of water before achieving a partial reversal of fortune: Cape Town, Melbourne, São Paulo, Las Vegas, and New Orleans. The overriding takeaway from the report is that proactive investment and governance can mitigate water scarcity risks. However, this conclusion serves to underscore the risk in underdeveloped countries such as Afghanistan, where weak state institutions not only compound water scarcity but also imperil the search for solutions.