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June 25th, 2025
Central Asians who have seen the amount of potable water available to them drop from 8400 cubic meters per capita per year a half century ago to only 2100 now, are certain to flood into the Russian Federation which has more than 20 percent of the world’s reserves of fresh water, Moscow historian Konstantin Menzelintsev says. Many have talked about such an influx as a possibility, the Federal City expert continues; but it is now inevitable. “I am certain,” he says, “that the era of wars over water is not something of the far distant future” As a result, Menzelintsev continues, “the beginning of an aggressive migration into neighboring countries for residents of the countries of Central Asia is only a question of time.” This wave will hit Kazakhstan first and then it will flow onward into the Russian Federation.
More than 20% of the world’s fresh water reserves are concentrated in the Russian Federation, and its shortage in the past was the cause of the “Great Migration of Peoples” – FederalCity expert , Doctor of Historical Sciences Konstantin Menzelintsev .
– Not long ago, the media reported that the per capita supply of drinking water in Central Asia has decreased fourfold since the 1960s – from 8.4 to 2.1 thousand cubic meters per year. At the same time, the population of the region has increased several times. Do you think this factor could serve as a trigger for conflicts over access to this most important resource?
– It cannot, but it will definitely happen. I am sure that the era of “wars for water” is not such a distant future. Let’s look at the facts and figures: in 1960, 8.3 million people lived in Uzbekistan, and in 2024 – 37.5 million. The natural population growth in Uzbekistan is about 1 million people per year . The picture is exactly the same in the neighboring republics – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and partly in Turkmenistan too. As you understand, with the explosive population growth and gradual reduction of water resources, the beginning of aggressive migration to neighboring countries for residents of Central Asian countries is only a matter of time . First, it will be Kazakhstan, then it will be Russia’s turn.
Similar events have already taken place in world history. Thus, the climate factor was decisive for the beginning of the “Great Migration of Peoples” in the 4th-7th centuries AD. It all began with the drying up of the great rivers of Central Asia and southern Siberia – Chu, Jan-Darya, Uzboy, Torgul, Anda. Unable to grow crops and graze herds, the tribes inhabiting these regions gradually migrated to the west. At the beginning of our millennium, climate change was added to the water deficit, causing constant crop failures .
The trigger for the “Great Migration” was the tribal union of the Huns, who for several decades drove the Germanic and Slavic tribes into Europe. They, in turn, settled on the lands of the Roman Empire and, ultimately, destroyed it , laying the foundation for the emergence of new states. And it all began with a water shortage, I remind you.
Similar problems are emerging today. According to the World Bank, water shortages have forced people to move from their villages to cities more often. Between 1970 and 2000, about 10% of the world’s population moved because of them. By 2050, water shortages, climate change, and conflict could force up to 1.5 billion people to leave their homes.
In Iran, more than 12,000 villages were abandoned due to drought and water shortages from 2002 to 2017. People began moving to cities, and it became very crowded there . In Africa, especially in the Sahel and around Lake Chad, there are also many problems with water. Due to droughts and reduced water supplies, many people are leaving their homes there too. A similar situation awaits Central Asia.
Against this background, Russia, with its 20% of the planet’s fresh water reserves , with Lake Baikal (19% of all unfrozen fresh water in the world), with a volume of renewable water resources of about 4.5-4.6 thousand km³/year (10% of the planet’s renewable fresh water resources) – is obviously one of the most “tasty” targets in future “wars for water”. And do not think that we are talking only about Central Asia. Not long ago, Brussels declared that Russia is obliged (!) to provide the world community with access to the reserves of Lake Baikal.
Therefore, the country’s authorities must prepare for such a turn of events in advance. Strengthen the borders, improve means of protection, take full control of migration flows. Russia must not repeat the fate of the Roman Empire – this is our duty both to our descendants and to our ancestors.