WATER POLITICS

After military clashes between India and Pakistan broke out earlier this month — at more than three days’ duration, making them the most inflamed between the two countries in decades — a ceasefire was agreed on May 10. But the bilateral water-sharing Indus Waters Treaty remains in abeyance, as India unilaterally suspended it on April 23, a day after a deadly attack killed 26 civilians in the India-administered part of Kashmir.

In response, the Pakistan government said, “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War.” But the unilateral suspension of the treaty has not been rolled back by New Delhi, posing a significant economic threat to Pakistan’s economy, as about 80% of its irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation rely on the Indus water system.

“Pakistan will take all appropriate steps to safeguard its due share of water,” Shafqat Ali Khan, spokesperson for the country’s foreign ministry, said at a recent briefing without elaborating.

What can Islamabad do to maintain the flow of water and protect its agriculture and power supply? Here are four possible options that Pakistan can exercise to restore the treaty that is teetering on a precipice:

Mediation by the World Bank

When India and Pakistan signed their water-sharing treaty in 1960, the deal was brokered by World Bank. Pakistan expects the bank to mediate between the two countries again. Ajay Banga, the bank’s president, however, told Indian media earlier this month that the bank would not arbitrate in the dispute, “but assists in initiating processes if the dispute-resolution mechanisms of the treaty are triggered.”

Seeing a ray of hope from the bank’s stance, multiple departments of the Pakistan government are preparing a case to submit to the World Bank, a government official privy to the matter told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity.

Experts said that Pakistan should make an official request to the World Bank, since its case is strong.

“Under international law, the rights and responsibilities of upper and lower riparian states are clearly defined. India is clearly violating these principles, and Pakistan [as a lower riparian state] has legal grounds to respond,” Khalid Rahman, chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, told Nikkei.

Arbitration by other international forums

If the World Bank cannot help, Pakistan could go to other international forums.

Naseer Memon, a climate change consultant, said that Pakistan can invoke the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, as stipulated in the treaty. “Pakistan can also approach the International Court of Justice and the U.N. Security Council,” Memon told Nikkei.

Other experts said that international law options are slow-moving and do not offer a quick fix.

“At least in the immediate realm, it is very unlikely that Pakistan will have strong options to move and act within international legal frameworks,” Erum Sattar, a lecturer who researches the Indus at Tufts University in the U.S., told Nikkei. “International law and its development, as well as any formal legal judgments that Pakistan may obtain from any institution, will be very slow-moving,” Sattar said.

Direct negotiation with India

Experts suggest that Pakistan can start direct bilateral negotiations with India on the treaty at some point, if New Delhi agrees.

Rahman, the chairman of IPS, said that the ceasefire between India and Pakistan does not necessarily mean the end of a conflict mindset, and talks are expected to follow, including on the water treaty.

“If [bilateral] negotiations begin while Pakistan has already taken the matter to an international court, then it may complicate dialogue,” he told Nikkei.

Sattar, who is also the director of the sustainable water management program at Tufts, said that Pakistan can write to India to say it is open to suggestions that India may have for amending the treaty in any way.

“First and foremost, [Pakistan has to tell] India that it must come back to working within the treaty’s framework and paradigms, and that is the right way for negotiations or renegotiations of any kind to start,” she added.

“Unilateral abeyance, which is not legal or possible within the treaty’s framework, needs to be highlighted as problematic at all levels by Pakistani policymakers,” Sattar further explained.

Diplomatic campaign on this issue

Pakistan has announced it will send a parliamentary delegation to important world capitals to seek diplomatic support against India in light of the recent conflict, with New Delhi launching delegations last week.

A government official involved in the planning of this delegation confirmed to Nikkei on condition of anonymity that the water-sharing treaty will also be discussed by this delegation.

Moonis Ahmar, a professor at the University of Karachi, told Nikkei that for diplomatic efforts to be successful, Pakistan’s case regarding the treaty must be meticulously prepared.

“The problem in the past has been that Pakistan has failed to present its case professionally and compellingly, which has led to dismissals or a lack of serious consideration,” he said, adding that proper preparation with “professionalism, technical knowledge, expertise, skillfulness and legal insight” on the water treaty will hold the key to determining whether the delegation’s diplomatic campaign can be successful.