WATER POLITICS

Bangladesh, a country that struggles with nature’s forces frequently, recently dealt with one of the worst flood catastrophes in decades. Notably, there is growing evidence that the neighbouring country of India’s actions are to blame for this catastrophe, as well as natural events. The eastern border districts of Bangladesh have seen extraordinary flooding because of the recent release of water from the Dumbur Dam, located upstream of the Gumti River in Tripura State, India. This incident has rekindled long-standing tensions between the two countries, with Bangladesh accusing India of negligence and recklessness in the management of shared water resources.

Stephen Dujarric, the UN Secretary General’s spokesperson, also echoed that heavy rains and upstream flows from India have caused sudden floods in Bangladesh. The floods have wreaked staggering destruction. The death toll has risen to 59 due to devastating floods caused by heavy rainfalls and onrush of water from upstream. In 11 districts of the country, the water has trapped at least 1.2 million families. Additionally, the floods have directly affected about 6 million people in Feni, Cumilla, Chattogram, Khagrachhari, Noakhali, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Brahmanbaria, Sylhet, Lakshmipur, and Cox’s Bazar.

How this flood triggered anti-Indian sentiment

There is a strong anti-India sentiment brewing in Bangladesh. One of the main reasons is India’s unequivocal support to keep Sheikh Hasina in power by any means necessary. In addition to this, there are other tensions in bilateral relations, and the water sharing of 54 common rivers is of paramount importance. Members of the Interim Government of Bangladesh, students, and other quarters have rightly expressed their displeasure towards India due to the ongoing flood situation.

Bangladesh’s dissatisfaction primarily stems from the dams’ opening without prior notification, which resulted in the devastating floods the country experienced. Tripura has denied allegations that the dam’s release of water caused floods in Bangladesh. They claim that this happened due to heavy rains. According to some experts, India’s claim appears to be true, excess rainfall is a potential cause of flooding, and this rainfall has also triggered floods in India. Furthermore, experts believe that Bangladeshi meteorologists’ inability to predict excess rainfall and their failure to communicate the opening of the Indian Dam’s gates are major lapses.

Despite these considerations, India’s advantageous upstream position, political and security advantages from previous regimes, and skewed benefits from current water-sharing agreements have swung the balance in its favour. In the political transition that Bangladesh is currently going through, the country’s anti-India sentiment has become very evident. Chief Advisor Professor Muhammad Yunus spoke of developing a high-level system jointly between Bangladesh and India to deal with emergency situations like floods. But the recent flood situation signals a renewed focus on the biggest issues in the India-Bangladesh relationship.

Water sharing disputes and way forward

Teesta water sharing is the most disputed between India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh sought equitable distribution of Teesta water through the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty, but to no avail. Teesta remains an unfinished project. The 30-year term of the India-Bangladesh Water Sharing Agreement will expire in 2026. Considering the ongoing political changes in Bangladesh with the current flood situation and changing dynamics of regional and bilateral relations, the interim government of Bangladesh needs to consider other alternative measures in addition to bilateral efforts.

So far, the existing arrangements for water distribution and river management appear to be ineffective or overwhelmingly in favour of India. Bangladesh should continue bilateral efforts but not rely solely on them. India has always insisted on resolving all problems and issues bilaterally, but this has not been fruitful for Bangladesh. The Joint River Commission and Ganga Water Sharing Agreement are prime examples.

The Joint Rivers Commission has failed to resolve the issue of water sharing in transboundary rivers. India’s political inaction is a major contributor to this failure. Simultaneously, Bangladesh’s technical, diplomatic, and strategic incompetence also significantly contributes to the commission’s failure.

Bangladesh’s constitutional foreign policy is remarkably liberal and admirable compared to similar policies in any other country in the world. However, we need to reframe the implementation of this foreign policy to prioritise Bangladesh’s national and regional interests over political considerations. Now that the interim government is in place, this is the perfect opportunity for Bangladesh to determine its foreign policy implementation approach.

Additionally, Bangladesh must pursue domestic and individual solutions to the problems that arise. India’s ineffectiveness or reluctance to share water led Bangladesh to consider Chinese proposals to dam and dredge large stretches of the Teesta River. But due to India’s inaccessibility and concern, Bangladesh rejected China’s proposal. The previous government did this for political reasons. The relationship between Bangladesh and China is deep and based on extensive economic exchange. Since not political interest but state interest is now the main guide for the interim government’s activities, Bangladesh should again consider China’s proposal.

Redefining Bangladesh’s relationship with India is by no means the aim of the above discussions. The historical relationship and connection between the two countries is an undeniable fact, and its impact on the future course of bilateral relations is also important. The existing geopolitical, geostrategic, geoeconomic, regional, and bilateral relationship centered on India is a reality that Bangladesh cannot ignore. However, political interests have largely driven the trajectory of this relationship thus far. Bangladesh now needs to set aside this perspective and break free from the cycle of bilateral relationships dominated by state interests. Also, India needs to understand that Bangladesh will not wait forever to resolve bilateral issues but will look for other options.