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WATER POLITICS

Via OneWater, a look at how India and Pakistan can future-proof their threatened rivers:

> India has signalled its intention to re-negotiate the Indus Water Treaty
> Climate change has profoundly impacted the rivers governed by the Treaty
> To future-proof their rivers, leaders in India and Pakistan will need to shape a different approach in their negotiations – from water sharing to benefit sharing

A shift in perspective can future-proof the Indus Water Treaty.

A renegotiation of the Indus Water Treaty is imminent. On January 2023, New Delhi, claimed that the ‘intransigence’ of Pakistan had made the communication channels over shared waters defunct, and that it would like to modify if not terminate the 1960 agreement.

This follows an August 2021 report prepared by the 12th Standing Committee of Water Resources, which states that climate change has profoundly impacted the regions’ rivers. This alarming trend was not part of the original Treaty’s nine-year negotiation forged throughout the 1950s.

Since the Treaty’s inception, the Indus Basin has faced a range of ecological issues. Current environmental concerns include siltation, water logging, shifting water tables, water contamination, groundwater extraction, and flood management problems. In addition, precipitation trends remain difficult to quantify.

The rivers covered by the Treaty are diverse, flowing through different eco-climatic zones. Precipitation rates vary across the lower, middle, and upper basins. Climate-related threats have been especially emphasised by Pakistan, international institutions, and environmentalists. These threats could reduce Indus River flows by 30-40 percent in the future.

Overlaying climate change are the impacts of population growth and shifting demographics. India and Pakistan have experienced rapid urbanisation and increased demands on water-dependant agricultural and industrial sectors. As a result, both countries, particularly Pakistan, are among the most water-stressed in the world. Maintaining and ensuring environmental flows will be challenging unless a compromise is reached between water resources development and maintenance of the rivers.

The Treaty allocates the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. But it also conditionally grants India the right to certain non-consumptive uses of water on western rivers, which includes generating hydroelectricity through river dams, navigation, and fishing.

The focus on the Indus Basin is heavily tilted towards western rivers, where the building of hydrological structures is a priority for India. India has dismissed Pakistan’s reservations over dam development as a tactic to delay construction. Water disputes between the two countries have tended to revolve around hydropower projects and water rationing. As a result, vital concerns such as water quality and food security remain unclear.

The stakes are high. If the next major developments in the Indus Water Treaty are mishandled, it could result in increased tensions and mistrust between India and Pakistan over the shared rivers, possibly leading to a situation where water resources become a source of nationalistic conflict.

However, if both countries focus on dialogue and joint development, a cooperative framework that adapts to contemporary issues can emerge. The challenge will be finding a way to facilitate this partnership.

From water sharing to benefit sharing

To future-proof their rivers, leaders in India and Pakistan must stop using water as an instrument for winning bargaining games.

A stronger Indus Water Treaty requires both states to shift from a narrow approach of water sharing based solely on volume allocation to a broader approach of benefit sharing that considers multiple aspects such as water quality, wetland and biodiversity preservation, soil erosion, combined use of ground and surface water, and nature-based solutions. It emphasizes a more holistic and relational perspective on water management beyond just quantity. ´

Both countries could also benefit from focusing more on a sub-basin level instead of managing the area with a singular holistic approach. Interventions at the sub-basin level that can account for the diverse communities and hydrology, would make the action impactful.

However, to truly bring the Indus Water Treaty into the present, its governance must be critically examined. The Treaty highlights the scope of cooperation and shared governance (in Articles 4, 5 and 7). Translating these words in the Treaty into more tangible action would greatly increase the bargaining range between India and Pakistan.

Differences and similarities in perspective between India and Pakistan on water-related issues are constantly evolving. According to a 2021 study, primary concerns in Pakistan Punjab include flood management, water quality, minimum environmental flows, and unregulated exploitation of groundwater. On the other hand, India shares similar priorities of regulating excessive groundwater exploitation and addressing water quality concerns, but also focuses on reflections related to shifting cropping patterns, changing water tables, and shifting river courses.

While these value preferences stemmed primarily from the Ravi sub-basin, they offer novel ways of approaching the Indus Water Treaty and Indus Basin at large. This requires considering alternative interventions that prioritize benefit sharing for both India and Pakistan. Emphasizing this approach would enable both countries to critically engage with the multifaceted aspects of ‘water’ and explore new pathways for benefit sharing mechanisms to future-proof the Indus Water Treaty.