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WATER POLITICS

As freshwater resources become ever more scarce or polluted, a global crisis in access to clean water is emerging. While this will be most acutely felt in Africa and West Asia, a lack of freshwater is already an economic constraint in major growth markets like China, India, and Indonesia, as well as commercial centers in Australia and the western United States. According to the United Nations – if present consumption patterns continue – two-thirds of the world’s population will live in water-stressed conditions by the year 2025. In fact, 32 countries – by 2010 — are projected to experience water shortages.

At present, fewer than 10 countries share 60% of the world’s fresh water reserves. Brazil, Russia, China, and Canada comprise the top four water-rich nations. Surveying the world of water geopolitics, it is inevitable – as frequent readers of this blog know – that disputes over the control of water sources and rivers will arise between neighboring countries. Some of the regions most likely to feel stress earlier than others include:

• Asia (issues over the Tibetan watershed and glacier resource between China, India, Bangladesh, and numerous other Asian nations);
• Middle East (issues over the Euphrates & Tigris between Turkey and Iraq, as well as disputes over the Jordan River, between Israel, Jordan, and 3 other nations);
• Northern Africa (issues over the Nile between Ethiopia and Egypt);
• Southern Africa (issues over the Okavango between Angola, Namibia, and South Africa); and
• Europe (issues over the Danube, a resource shared by 15 countries)

One area that is not frequently analyzed is Central Asia. However, via a recent article in New Eurasia, we’re also able to take a look ahead at some shared water resources that have the potential to trigger Central Asian water tensions in the years ahead:

• Kazahstan and China competing over the Ili River;
• Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan arguing over control of the Amu Darya River;
• A series of conflicts in the Syr Darya and Chu river basin areas, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan arguing over water resources at Shardare, or Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan competing for Shu river water. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan may end up vying for the Syr Darya River, not to mention the likelihood that Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will argue over a large number of small rivers that lie between the two nations.

Given existing geopolitical tensions, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan seem most likely to experience problems first, particularly Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In light of their current water sources and ongoing petro-wealth (with which they may be able to “buy” their way out of water shortages or conflicts), Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan appear to be better positioned to manage the coming challenges.