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Courtesy of On People, Rivers, and Migration, an interesting article on the geopolitics of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna River Basin:

Figure 1: Map of Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna basin and countries’ hydro-strategic positions

Figure 1 illustrates the regional areas covered by the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna river basin. The area shaded light grey is the area covered by the Ganges river. Dark grey areas are covered by the Brahmaputra river and square patterned areas are covered by the Meghna river.   The map shows each country’s hydro-strategic position in each major river in the basin.

The Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna river basin has abundant water during the monsoon season and scarce water in the dry season (Biswas, 2008). During the wet or monsoon season, prolonged rainfall happens during the month of July and August leading to innumerous cases of flooding in this basin region. In contrast, dry season usually occurs during the months of December through March in which water flows account for one tenth to one twentieth of the average flood flows (qtd. in Treadwell, Akanda, 2009). Countries in this basin face the double-sided issue of floods and droughts.

One of the major rivers in this basin is the Brahmaputra river. It originates in China/Tibet and flows through the Himalayans into India before entering Bangladesh. Its length is measured to be 2900 km (Khalid, 2010).  Another major river is the Ganges river. It is said to originate from the Gangotri glacier in the Indian side of Himalayas (Hollick, 2008; Rahaman, 2009). Its major tributaries come from different countries such as Nepal and Tibetan China (Khalid, 2010).  The other important river is Meghna river. It originates in the mountains in eastern India and flows southwest (McEwen, 2008). These three rivers Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna all join together and reach the sea near the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh.

The Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna river basin is shared by six countries China, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh (Human Development Report, 2006). It supplies water to two major developing economies and emerging world powers: China and India. It is predicted that both China and India’s prospects for long term economic development will depend on their access to water sources. One reason is that both countries have two of the lowest per capita water reserve base in the world (Holslag 2011).

Other countries in this basin also find this water basin as a very important water source. For example, Bangladesh receives more than 75% of its water from external sources (Human Development Report, 2006). Being a country in the downstream region of B-G-M basin, Bangladesh is in a difficult position because other countries have natural advantages in access to water in this basin. For example, Bangladesh receives more than 75% of its water from external sources (HDR, 2006). It can be said that Bangladesh has less power than upstream countries in terms of access to water due to its downstream geographic position. The quality and availability of the water carried downstream is based on the actions undertaken by upstream countries. For example, pollution is carried downstream which can decrease water quality. Also, dams and canals built by upstream countries would limit the quantity of the water flow downstream. Power relations are affected by a country’s geographic position such as being located upstream or downstream of a river.

This degree of interdependence between riparian countries can create water conflicts or water cooperation in this region.  Historically, there are several examples of past water cooperation and water conflicts between these countries. Here is a summary of the claims, concerns and positions of the countries in the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna region.

India

• Climate change is expected to accelerate the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and create unpredictable rainfall patterns in the region. The threat of drought due to unpredictable rainfall patterns pushes India to attempt to secure part of the water sourced from the Chinese side of the Hymalayans (Holslag, 2011)
• India and Bangladesh signed the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty in 1996 that solved past water disputes between these two countries (Anik, Barbier, 2008).
• India has been considering another potential project to divert water from the Brahmaputra river to the Ganges river. This project would increase the supply of water for drought prone regions in India but has the potential to induce major environmental degradation to Bangladesh (Anik, Barbier, 2008).
• India opposes China’s plan to divert the Brahmaputra river and has been attempting to gather international support against it.
• India is planning to construct the Tipaimukh Dam to deal with water issues in the state of Assam. Bangladesh strongly opposes this unilateral project by India that received no approval from the Bangladeshi government (Khalid, 2010)
• India faces major shortages of electricity which drives its push for hydroelectric projects and buying excess electricity from its neighbors.

China

• China has been considering plans to divert Brahmaputra river since late 1980s. One option was to build a dam at the Great Bend of the Yarlung river where the river flows through a gorge between two mountains. This dam would be located around 30 kilometers from the state of Arunachal Pradesh in India. The diverted water would go to a massive water reservoir in Lajia Gorge and then channeled to the Yellow river or Qinghai lake (Holslag, 2011).
• China’s argument against India’s opposition is that India itself has plans to link the Brahmaputra river to the Ganges river. Also, China accuses India’s for not respecting the water treaties with its downstream neighbor Bangladesh (Holslag, 2011).
• China has a hydrological data sharing agreement with India signed in 2002 (Holslag, 2011).
• China expects climate change to shrink the Himalayan glaciers which could turn Ganges and Yangtze rivers to limited seasonal river flows. This would further increase water shortages in China and place water as a matter of national security (Holslag, 2011).

Bangladesh

• Bangladesh received military assistance from India in its war for independence from Pakistan (Treadwell, Akanda, 2009).
• Bangladesh has faced water shortages due to India unilateral diversions of Ganges water at Farraka barrage since its operation in 1975. Bangladesh brought this issue to the United Nations (Treadwell, Akanda, 2009).
• Ganges Water Treaty was signed in 1996 and enhanced water cooperation between Bangladesh and India (Brichieri-Colombi, Bradnock, 2003).
• Bangladesh and India are currently negotiating a bilateral water sharing agreement on the Teesta river. A primary agreement was made in 1983 but no final agreement has been reached yet (qtd. FAO, 2011).

Nepal

• Nepal has high political mistrust towards India mainly due to big country-small country syndrome (Biswas 2008).
• Being a landlocked country between both India and China. Nepal seeks to have good diplomatic relations with both countries (US Department of State, 2011). India has concerns over growing economic ties between China and Nepal.
• There have been past water cooperation cases between Nepal and India. For instance, Nepal and India have signed various treaties on water sharing between Bagmati, Gandak and Kosi rivers (all tributaries of the Ganges). These treaties allow water cooperation related to irrigation, navigation, hydropower, fishing and anti-deforestation projects (HDR, 2006). There is a strong perception in Nepal that they got a ‘raw’ deal for these projects and India gained more benefits than Nepal (Biswas, 2008).
• Nepal signed the Mahakali river treaty in 1996 with India. This treaty provided a framework agreement for the development of the Pancheswar Dam in Nepal. The Pancheswar Dam project is running very slowly and has faced several implementation difficulties (Biswas, 2008).

Bhutan

• Bhutan has very close bilateral ties with India. India is Bhutan’s largest trade and development partner (US Department of State, 2011).
• Bhutan has realized it does not have the financial resources or the technical expertise to develop its vast water resources. Thus, Bhutan has sought water cooperation agreements with its neighbor India to develop its water sources (Biswas 2008).
• Another realization is that even if Bhutan’s water resources are developed, the country does not have the absorptive capacity to use these benefits due to its small and decentralized population. For example, the building of dams for hydropower generation in Bhutan would create energy excesses that need to be exported to other countries (Biswas, 2008).
• Bhutan cooperated with India to develop the Wangchu cascade in Chukha in 1980 for hydropower generation purposes. Bhutan sold the excess electricity to India. There have been plans to increase the storage capacity of the Chucka Dam (Biswas, 2008).
• Bhutan does not have diplomatic relations with China but both countries have engaged in high level talks with regard a border dispute (US Department of State, 2011).

Myanmar/Burma

• Myanmar only controls a small part of the Meghna river. Hence, the country does not have big ambitions in securing water cooperation agreements with other countries in the B-G-M basin.
• Myanmar is rich in natural gas and India has plans to import it. However, India has to run a pipe through Bangladesh. Bangladesh agreed to this plan in 2005 but no agreement was signed yet (qtd. in Treadwell, Akanda, 2009). This issue could be brought up in future water negotiations between Myanmar, Bangladesh and India.
• Myanmar’s biggest trade and development partner is China. China is the major supplier of arms and munitions to this country (US Department of State, 2011).

For this case study on the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna basin, payoffs from cooperation can be defined as benefits gained from irrigation, hydropower generation, flood management, water for industrial use, water for human consumption and river navigation. The first payoff is irrigation which is of vital importance to all riparian countries. Populations from all riparian countries are expected to increase dramatically, especially China, India and Bangladesh. This leads to an increase in demand for agricultural goods that require high amounts of water. For example, rice is one of the highest demanded crops in this basin area. Rice requires vast amounts of water for its cultivation. Hence, increases in demand for agricultural goods such as rice due to population booms will pressure governments to increase the supply of water through irrigation projects.

The second payoff is hydropower generation. The generation of hydropower can channel economic development and increased standards of living for the population in the riparian countries. The current situation in the B-G-M basin is that the energy economy for the region overall is based on non-commercial sources such as biomass (Biswas, 2008). The current energy economy is unsustainable and can’t cover present and future energy needs from population and economic growth (Biswas, 2008). For instance, peak power demand in India for years 2007-2008 was 108,886 MW and the peak power demand met was 90,739 MW. There was a shortfall of 18,093 MW or 16.6% of peak power demand (Khalid, 2010). This shows how India faces power deficits in terms of electricity provision.

One way for India and other riparian countries to prevent future power shortfalls is to develop hydropower sources cooperatively.  There are plenty of untapped potential hydropower sources within the B-G-M basin (Biswas, 2008). For example, Nepal is only using 0.6% of its total hydropower potential (Biswas, 2008). This can be attributed to factors such political distrust between riparian countries and the attempt by countries to pursue hydropower projects unilaterally. Basin wide cooperation could allow Nepal to improve its capacity to harness hydropower and sell the excess power to other countries. Nepal could follow Bhutan’s water cooperation project with India. Bhutan’s excess electricity generated at Tala Dam is sold to India (HDR, 2006). Riparian countries with different comparative advantages can cooperate with each other in order to increase total regional payoffs.

The third defined payoff is flood management. There are two types of flood management measures: structural and non-structural. The structural flood management practices include embankments, river training, drainage improvement and the building of reservoirs. Non-structural flood management measures consist of flood forecasting, warning and data sharing agreements between riparian countries (Biswas, 2008). For instance in the year 2000, heavy monsoon rains caused flash-floods in the banks along the Brahmaputra River that left millions of people homeless in Northeast India. The Indian government demanded compensation from China arguing that it was the landslide on the Chinese side of the Brahmaputra River that caused the floods (Holslag, 2011).  Earlier that year, the Indian minister of agriculture argued that problems with Chinese dams had caused flash floods in the region of Arunachal Pradesh (Holslag, 2011). Water cooperation arose from this conflict between China and India. In 2002, after series of negotiations between both parties, an agreement has been reached.  Both parties agreed to share hydrological information on the Brahmaputra River during the flood season (Holslag, 2011). This water cooperation agreement has the potential to reduce the damage caused by flash-floods near the river banks, improve international relations between both countries and provide benefits to both parties.

The fourth payoff is water for industrial use. The economic growth for many countries in the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna basin relies on their industrial sectors. These sectors need reliable supply of both electricity and water in order to sustain its production levels. For example, Bangladesh needs sustained water supply and cheap water prices in order to remain competitive in the garment manufacturing sector. Thus, the government of Bangladesh places high priority in securing water supplies in order to create long-term economic growth and development.  Other emerging economies such as China and India place similar priorities in securing water sources. Water itself is instrumental to industrial development for these countries.

The fifth payoff is water for human consumption. Unlike the instrumental nature of water for industrial use, water for human consumption has an intrinsic nature. The availability of freshwater for domestic use brings benefits to human development. The provision of water for human consumption should meet certain quantity and quality standards. Riparian countries can cooperate and regulate the flow of the water to ensure specific water quantities are available to downstream countries. Also, specific water quality standards can be set that control the pollution released downstream by upstream countries.  For example, a mechanism for real-time water quality data exchange between riparian countries could produce good results (Biswas, 2008). Water cooperation between riparian countries could improve the quantity and quality of water available for downstream countries.

The sixth payoff is inland navigation which could foster trade and commerce for the region covered by Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna basin. Better inland navigation provides an opportunity for riparian countries to improve trade relationships with each other and enhance international trade with the rest of the world. For instance, basin wide cooperation could allow landlocked countries like Nepal and Bhutan ways to access major ports. Two major ports in this region are Kolkata port in India and Mongla port in Bangladesh (Biswas, 2008). Kolkata port locates in the river Hooghly, one of Ganges river tributaries. River Hooghly is of critical importance to regional area in the B-G-M basin because it provides a waterway from the industrial city of Kolkata to the Bay of Bengal (Treadwell, Akanda, 2009). Moreover, tributaries to Ganges river from Nepal like Karnali, Gandaki and Kosi rivers have great potential to become major waterways for inland navigation and transportation. The development of these waterways would allow Nepal to a link to the sea through the use of Ganges river.

All the payoffs enumerated above can help understand whether riparian countries are willing to undertake unilateral action, form partial coalitions with certain countries or attempt full cooperation between all riparian countries.

Water management of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna river basin will play a major role in the international relations in Asia and globally. Water projects, programs and policies are being implemented from the top-down to manage the challenges linked to the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna river basin. But what about the views of the people who reside within this river basin? About 10% of the world’s population live within the regional area covered by the B-G-M river basin (Biswas, 2008).

What current research needs is a bridge between the top-down perspectives of water management on the B-G-M river basin with the bottom-up ways in which people relate to rivers in this (Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna) river basin.

This blog will attempt to give some perspectives on how people relate to rivers in different ways—physically, economically, culturally, socially, historically, artistically, spiritually and etc…There are some many ways that people can relate to rivers…So many ways…