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WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, a look at food and water security in the Middle East:

Background

Rising temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are likely to force regional states to address the exacerbated threat to the supply and security of food and water. This issue is brought to the fore by the record temperatures set on 21 July 2016 in Kuwait, where temperatures reached 54 degrees Celsius. This drastic level of heat has brought the issue of the climate to the fore for the region. Research published in 2015 shows that climate change could bring temperatures to a level where humans cannot survive for extended periods of time in some parts of the Persian Gulf by 2100.

The rise in the frequency of heatwaves, damaging weather events such as sand storms and droughts in states such as Iran and Saudi Arabia are reason to focus on the approach which must be taken in response to a changing region. The Middle East has a growing population and a growing demand for resources. These, along with other pressures, stress the ability of Middle Eastern governments to maintain human security.

Comment

The depletion of the Aral Sea is an example of disastrous management of water resources and the impact it can have on human security. It represents a worst-case scenario that could become increasingly commonplace across the Middle East. The depletion of the Aral Sea has led to a major increase in dust storm frequency. The sea used to cool and slow Siberian winds, but since the 1960s, when it began to dry up, these winds now blow dust where the sea used to be. This affects the quality of other freshwater systems. The dust was distributed in areas far beyond the region – dust from the Aral Sea area has been found as far as 500 kilometres away from the original source. This has affected other ecosystems and surface water bodies, mainly due to the concentration of salt in the dust. The salt content in the dust made up about 30 to 40 per cent of the volume in the summer and was as high as 90 per cent in the winter.

The largest issue for Iran to overcome is the mismanagement of the resources that it already accesses. The poor use of damming, crop patterns and dust storms have stressed the finances of the region. Currently, 90 to 92 per cent of Iran’s water supply is used for agriculture, a sector that accounts for only 13 per cent of GDP. For the proportion of water focussed on agriculture, only 15 per cent of Iran is cultivated and this presents a major issue for the sustainable management of the fresh water supply. Should major deficits continue, the demand for development and the accommodation of a massive population could threaten the political stability and governance.

Countries such as Iran have strong emphasis on food self-sufficiency, particularly wheat. Until recently, this was also the direction of Saudi Arabia when the dwindling supply of fresh water demanded a shift towards the importing of all grains. Saudi Arabia is facing a probable 77 per cent growth in its population by 2050. Such a strain on the limited fresh water reserves would likely threaten socio-political stability. The major concerns for Saudi Arabia are the vulnerability of grain imports through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing urban demand for resources and minimal arable land for agricultural self-reliance.

The prospects of failed states are a tragic repercussion of a failure to manage human security. The failure of states such as Syria and Libya has put pressures on other states and their resources. If the states of MENA continue to endure higher temperatures, domestic and interstate tensions are likely to rise with them. Across the Middle East, the effects of climate change are projected to increase the average temperature by 1.16 and three degrees Celsius by 2050. In addition to population growth, the capacity of the region to even sustain the projected numbers comes into doubt.

The possible solution for all these symptoms lies in the proper management of the agricultural land and systems available to states. Regional bodies such as the United Nations Environmental Programme and its “Sand and Dust Storm Project” strive to find a regional solution. Negotiating the demand for development and resources will be the largest issue facing the region, requiring policies to manage explosive population growth. The likelihood of a resolution between the various states of the region is slim on a bilateral level and a regional approach is a more likely solution. In this case it must overcome a history of geostrategic and sectarian tensions, while negotiating the regressive attitudes of self-reliance and negative resources governance practices.