WATER POLITICS

The development of hydropower is a keystone in Ethiopia’s plans for economic development. The current Growth and Transformation Plan aims to increase production capacity fivefold by 2015, encompassing the construction of several new hydropower dams. These plans have already caused some regional conflict; the Grand Renaissance Dam Project, on the Blue Nile River, has angered Egypt because of concerns that Nile flows would be adversely affected, contributing to existing water scarcity.

The construction of another of these projects, the GIBE III Dam on the Omo River, began in 2006 with completion expected by 2015. Southern neighbour Kenya is now raising concerns about the impact of the project on Lake Turkana, the country’s major water source. The lake receives 80 per cent of its inflow from the Omo River, supporting the livelihoods of tens of thousands of people. It harbours fish species on which local people depend for subsistence, as well as providing water for livestock and crop irrigation.

The Kenyan Government initially supported the hydropower project, as it intends to purchase some of the electricity produced, but is now concerned about the environmental and social impacts. Kenya recently announced plans to enter negotiations with Ethiopia, aiming to develop a bilateral agreement. This would ensure that water collected by the dam will later be discharged and allowed to flow downstream, rather than harvested for use in local irrigation. This has been prompted by concerns that the elimination or substantial reduction of downstream flows from the dam could decrease the lake’s water level, thereby reducing water availability for local people and agriculture. This would also contribute to increased salinity, groundwater depletion and adverse impacts on fish stocks, all of which would contribute to food scarcity. 

The projected benefits for Ethiopia if these developments successfully go ahead are significant. The development of the energy sector is an important part of the Growth and Transformation Plan, which aims to achieve ten per cent annual growth in GDP. This encompasses increases in the production and distribution of electricity, which will generate income from the sale of electricity, as well as contributing to development in other key areas such as agriculture and industry.Achieving greater access to electricity for the Ethiopian population would facilitate further development and also provide additional benefits.Likewise, these development benefits would extend to neighbouring countries, which would also have greater access to electricity by buying into the grid. The dam developments may also enable the expansion of irrigated agriculture. There are, however, potential costs for both Ethiopia and its neighbours and also potential catalysts for conflict, these issues also demand consideration.

A major concern surrounding these hydropower projects is the impact on the livelihoods of local populations. Many people who depend on healthy river ecosystems for survival, have not been consulted about the projects and have a poor understanding of their implications. Some populations in already poverty-stricken areas have been relocated to facilitate the construction of dams. Any environmental impacts of the projects will affect these populations significantly. If not effectively managed, these pressures could contribute to internal instability.

Another major concern is that damming will impact flows to water resources in neighbouring states, such as the Nile River in Egypt and Lake Turkana in Kenya, causing geopolitical conflict. This would compound existing pressures on the availability of water and food in these regions, which is projected to result from population increases and concurrent rainfall decreases due to climate change. Egypt has already secured a bilateral agreement with Ethiopia and Kenya’s current concerns reflect this problem. Use of the water from the dams for local irrigation would accelerate agricultural development in Ethiopia, but would reduce downstream flows. If Ethiopia fails to balance its own economic gains against the effects on its neighbours, the risk of conflict is significant.

To prevent regional conflict, Ethiopia must respond to Kenya’s demands for a bilateral agreement and also increase its co-operation with neighbouring states. Furthermore, there is an urgent need for more comprehensive and independent assessments of the potential environmental, social, and economic risks of these projects, to better inform decision making and management.

– See more at: http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publications/food-and-water-crises/28-global-food-and-water-crises-swa/1238-ethiopian-hydropower-aspirations-cause-tensions-with-neighbours.html#sthash.ZjDdafh7.dpuf