WATER POLITICS

The Ethiopian Government’s “Growth and Transformation Plan” relies on large infrastructure projects, such as the US$4.7 billion ($5.06 billion) Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), to deliver crucial economic growth. The GERD project, however, located on the Blue Nile, has led to a strong Egyptian backlash regarding water rights in the region. In July 2013, Future Directions International reviewed Egypt’s initial response to the dam. Little seems to have changed, with the dam approaching 30 per cent completion; there has been little progress towards co-operation over the project.

Comment

The GERD is expected to serve as an East African energy hub, generating 700 megawatts of electricity from 2015. Projected to cater for increased power demand in Ethiopia and its neighbouring states, the project is crucial for economic development in the region. The promise of cheap, regionally produced electricity, however, has done little to encourage Egyptian support for the project. Egypt has raised concerns that the GERD will disrupt the flow of water to downstream riparian states, threatening Egypt’s vulnerable water security. Egypt already uses close to its full water entitlement and, with the combined populations of Ethiopia and Egypt expected to reach 100 million by 2050, the increasing demand for water will further strain supplies and increase the risk of conflict.

Ethiopia maintains that the project will not affect Egypt’s water supply, as water diverted from the Blue Nile will be used exclusively to generate power and then returned to the river. Nevertheless, Egypt has made its aversion to the project clear, blocking Ethiopia’s access to foreign credit and threatening a military attack on the dam. An impact assessment of the project has been carried out by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE), but Egypt has called for construction to be halted pending further investigation.

Egypt’s concerns for its water security are well founded; Cairo’s response, however, has been emotive and reactionary, rather than constructive. Given Egypt’s strong conviction that it maintains an “historic” right to the Nile, its reaction is not surprising. Driven by a fear of losing dominance over the Nile, Egypt’s response is an attempt to hold on to traditional hegemony.

In the current political and economic climate in Egypt, it is not in its best interests to refuse to co-operate with Ethiopia. Egypt does not have the resources required to launch a military attack on Ethiopia, nor can it risk the condemnation of the international community.

Ethiopia, meanwhile, seems unconcerned by the Egyptian threats to the GERD. The project is central to the Ethiopian Government’s economic development plans and construction will go ahead regardless of Egypt’s position. Egypt must shift its position and act co-operatively with Ethiopia if real progress is to be made on regional water sharing.

Ethiopia has stated that it is willing to consider Egypt’s proposals on the implementation of recommendations made by the IPoE. If long-term water security is to be maintained in East Africa, Egypt must move away from its reactionary stance and put achieving regional consensus ahead of national protection.