WATER POLITICS

On 24 March, Ethiopia announced that 90% of its Renaissance Dam project would be completed during the next rainy season.

According to researchers’ data, this operation will block about 20 billion cubic metres of water this summer.

Hani Sweilam, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, speaking at the UN Water Conference, said this move will be met by Cairo’s denunciation of the dam’s “disastrous effects” and “immeasurable damage to the social and economic stability of Egypt”. He also criticised Ethiopia’s unilateral behaviour.

Sudan is also concerned by this measure.

The issue of the dam, however, continues to preoccupy specialists, who deplore the breakdown in talks between the three Nile-dependent countries. “If the fourth phase of filling the Ethiopian dam is launched, Addis Ababa will fully realise its goal and dam construction will be a fait accompli.

“Unfortunately, last year, there was no progress in the negotiations between the three countries,” Abbas Sharaky, Professor of Water Resources and Geology at Cairo University, tells The Africa Report.

Recourse to the UN

“Ethiopia’s announcement of a 90% completion of the dam is exaggerated, but it does not prevent the country from blocking about 20 billion cubic metres of water over the next few months, equivalent to the total amount of water that has been blocked behind the dam for the three months prior to this new filling phase.

“Ethiopia is taking a random approach to filling and blocking quantities of water without coordinating with the two downstream countries or taking their needs into account,” adds the specialist.

The three countries – Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia – last held talks in early April 2021. Despite Cairo’s appeal to the UN Security Council last spring to force Addis Ababa to accept a legal agreement on the dam, no meeting has since been held between the three concerned countries.

At this stage, Egyptian efforts have failed, and further negotiations seem more than hypothetical. “Ethiopia has taken advantage of the current situation to impose its will on Egypt for the fourth time without any action from Cairo,” says Adly Sadawy, a member of the Egyptian Council on Foreign Affairs (ECFA) and former head of the Institute for Research and Strategic Studies on the Nile Basin States at Fayoum University.

Mobilising the international community

“The fourth filling of the Renaissance Dam will have a major effect on Egypt, given the large amount of water that will be blocked by the dam. If Cairo wants to resolve the situation, it must now find a way to draw the attention of the international community to the issue,” says Sadawy. “This implies making the issue of the dam a hot topic on the international stage.”

This sentiment is shared by former Egyptian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohamed Hegazi, who says: “Egypt will not accept being the only one to suffer damages caused by the construction of the dam if Ethiopia remains determined to complete the project without an agreement. The water of the Nile is a matter of life or death, and remains a top priority issue that takes precedence over all other crises facing Egypt.”

On 9 March, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry confirmed to the local media that “all options are open, all alternatives remain conceivable, and Egypt can count on its capabilities and strong foreign relations,” no doubt an implicit way of suggesting that a military option is still a possibility.

In the country, however, the subject is not really debated, with all discussions revolving around current economic problems.

Since March 2022, the country has been in an acute economic crisis. The Egyptian pound has lost more than 50% of its value, inflation has risen to more than 40% in February 2023, and the price of essential goods has doubled.