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WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, an article on the impact of drought on Afghanistan’s food and physical security:

Along with worsening conflict and a precarious economic outlook, one of the worst droughts in decades is compounding food insecurity in Afghanistan, especially in the north and west of the country. A La Niña event has caused a rain and snow deficit of 70 per cent this year and the wheat production forecast looks grim. As the drought has worsened, there has been a 45 per cent reduction in agricultural output this year. This is a further fall from 2017’s figures, which saw wheat production fall 57 per cent below the five-year average.

Comment

Afghanistan relies on agriculture as the backbone of its economy. It employs 44 per cent of the workforce and contributes 25 per cent of GDP. In better years, it drives economic growth and provides some form of income to 61 per cent of households. Agriculture could set Afghanistan up for significant economic transformation, if not for its exposure to a series of calamities that have engulfed the country.

The first of those calamities is drought. Though water shortages have not been uncommon in Afghanistan over the last decade, the 2018 drought has been especially alarming. Over 250,000 people have been displaced and a further 1.4 million people require humanitarian assistance, due to poor rainfall. In Badghis province, 95 per cent of cropland has become unusable, as have pastures for livestock. This is made worse by haphazard approaches to water management.

 Irrigation, for instance, tends to be practiced in traditional ways, as rainfall is unpredictable, making irrigation central to agriculture. Usually this means using canals. That is by far the most common method in Afghanistan; 75 per cent of crops are irrigated using this way. The use of canals is fine when water is plentiful, but it relies on snowmelt, which has been scarce this year. It also tends to waste significantly more water than many modern methods of irrigation, waste that Afghanistan can ill afford.

Conflict has also had serious consequences for the development of agriculture in Afghanistan. Low rainfall and high temperatures have been the primary driver of the drought, but decades of conflict have also helped shape the conditions that have led to a crisis. Again, irrigation has an important role here. As the fighting has continued, canal management has collapsed. Though recent conflict related damage has not been assessed, irrigated land has declined by more than half since 1978 and many canals no longer deliver water.

Water has also been used as a weapon of war. Allegations recently surfaced that the Taliban blocked the flow of water to farmers to force their compliance with demands. Worsening conflict in 2018 has also been partially responsible for driving down economic growth, causing low rates of employment and high consumer prices. All of this is making access to food more difficult for many people.

Regional developments have also influenced Afghanistan’s economic prospects and affected its access to other suppliers and the availability of food. Iran’s faltering economy has forced 552,000 Afghans out of the Islamic Republic since the start of 2018, many of whom were deported suddenly. Those left in Iran face shrinking incomes due to a shortage of work. That has meant fewer remittances to Afghanistan from Iran, which normally makes up at least 40 per cent of total remittances. Iran is also facing a major drought of its own. Increasingly politicised rhetoric over water sharing on the Helmand River is making it more and more difficult for Afghanistan to effectively utilise its surface water for agricultural development.

It is possible for Afghanistan to improve its food security prospects, but doing so will rely on bringing peace to a war-torn country, prudent economic management, building climate-resilient agriculture, and strong hydro diplomacy. Considering the hurdles that it faces, it is likely that Afghanistan’s food and water security will remain precarious for the foreseeable future.