WATER POLITICS

The Caspian Sea’s water levels have decreased an average of 2.75 inches annually since the early 1990s. The Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences now estimates the loss rate at 9 inches per year. From 1993 to 2023, the water level dropped by 6 feet, 6 inches in total.

While the Aral Sea shrank primarily because Soviet-era irrigation projects diverted its tributaries, the Caspian’s decline is more closely tied to climate change-induced evaporation and reduced river inflow caused by dams. But the ecological and socioeconomic consequences could be similarly severe if current trends continue.

Researchers have found that hotter surface air temperatures over the Caspian Sea, which have risen by about 1 degree Celsius since 1979, have increased evaporation. One study suggests that if current evaporation rates continue, the northern part of the Caspian Sea could disappear within 75 years.

Compounding the effects of climate change are reduced river inflows, especially from the Volga River, which accounts for 80 percent of the Caspian’s inflow. Eight major dams on the Volga have reduced water flow to about one-tenth of its pre-dam speed. In 2023, water levels in the southern part of Russia’s Saratov region dropped to a 37-year low. Similar issues arose in the Tatarstan region, where the Kuybyshev Reservoir nearly reached a “critical” level. Without the dams reducing the amount of water flowing into the Caspian, the current level of the sea would be 3 to 5 feet higher, evidence suggests.

The expected declines in water levels will have catastrophic effects on the region’s biodiversity, while exacerbating desertification and disrupting local communities whose residents depend on the sea for their livelihoods. The shrinking sea will threaten habitats, particularly in shallow areas like the northern Caspian, home to diverse ecosystems. Fisheries, a critical economic sector for countries like Kazakhstan, Iran and Russia, will be at risk as species like sturgeon lose their breeding grounds.

The effects are already apparent. Kazakhstan is experiencing some of the most severe impacts because of its shallow coastline. In Aqtau, a city with a population of about 250,000, residents face trade disruptions and difficulties with drinking water supply as the sea recedes. And the Aqtau port—Kazakhstan’s only port on the Caspian—is struggling to operate at full capacity because of lower water levels, affecting cargo operations.

Meanwhile, coastal communities that rely on fishing and maritime industries are seeing their livelihoods disappear, forcing many people to consider relocation. Kazakhstan has been among the most proactive of the littoral states in addressing the issue, with the government declaring a state of emergency in June 2023 because of low water levels. But despite high-level discussions over possible policy measures, concrete plans for managing displaced populations or “climate refugees” are not yet evident.

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On the whole, the Caspian littoral states appear to be at best complacent considering the extreme severity of the problem.

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Russia also faces challenges along its Caspian coast as well as along the Volga River. Towns and settlements along the Volga have been grappling with decreased river volume, which has affected river navigation and trade. Falling water levels may jeopardize the planned expansion of the Lagan port and other port and infrastructure projects on the Caspian itself due to the changing shoreline. While specific counts of displaced persons in Russia are unavailable, the economic impact on fishing and shipping industries is likely forcing migration from coastal areas.

By contrast, Azerbaijan’s concerns are primarily economic and geopolitical, as changing coastlines and maritime borders may affect the country’s offshore oil and gas operations. As a result, Azerbaijan has focused more on negotiating new maritime borders and resource rights than addressing potential population displacement.

Iran is also experiencing significant impacts, particularly in its northern regions. Falling sea levels are damaging the Anzali Lagoon, an important ecological and economic area. Ports and docks in coastal regions are becoming less accessible, disrupting shipping and transit operations. Iranian officials have called for a presidential commission to address the issue, showing a growing awareness of the problem, but as elsewhere concrete planning has lagged.

In Turkmenistan, ferry service between some towns has reportedly been disrupted because of low water levels, affecting not only local transportation but also tourism. Plans for developing trans-Caspian gas pipelines may also be affected, with potentially significant economic consequences. However, the country’s opaque governance limits information on Turkmenistan’s policy responses.

On the whole, the Caspian littoral states appear to be at best complacent considering the extreme severity of the problem. Experts recommend fostering regional dialogue, engaging the international community and taking immediate action to mitigate water loss. But while there have been some discussions at regional summits, international cooperation on the issue remains limited.

As of November 2024, there have been no specific agreements between countries bordering the Caspian Sea to directly address falling water levels. What’s more, the fundamental dispute among littoral states over whether to classify the Caspian as a sea or a lake remains unresolved. This classification has significant implications for resource allocation. If it is classified as a lake, the Caspian’s bordering states would share resources equally. If it is classified as a sea, international maritime law would dictate dividing resources based on coastline length.

There are many stumbling blocks to reaching a joint agreement, not least the littoral states’ conflicting economic objectives. The Caspian possesses approximately 48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Russia and Iran advocate for stricter environmental regulations, while Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan prioritize economic development through oil and gas extraction. Also, the littoral states’ varying levels of acknowledgement and concern about climate change hinder coordinated action.

That said, the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, which was signed in 2018, marks some progress toward establishing a legal framework for cooperation among the littoral states. The convention sidesteps the issue of whether the Caspian is a lake or sea, defining it as a “body of water” with “special legal status.” And while it doesn’t directly address climate change impacts, the convention provides a foundation for potential future collaboration on the issue. The littoral states have also signed several protocols focusing on environmental protection, including the Aktau Protocol on oil pollution and the Moscow Protocol on land-based pollution sources. There is a potential to expand these protocols to address climate change impacts.

However, there are many impediments to progress. For instance, Iran has yet to ratify the convention, due to ongoing disagreement over its share of the sea’s resources. And as is often the case with climate change diplomacy, economic interests often supersede environmental concerns. Also, each country has different priorities and approaches to environmental management, making it difficult to establish a cohesive strategy for addressing climate change impacts. Further, there is a lack of comprehensive, collaborative scientific studies among all five nations to fully understand and address the complex factors contributing to the sea’s decline. 

Resolving tensions between environmental conservation and economic exploitation of the Caspian’s resources will be key to any long-term solution. To combat falling water levels in the Caspian, a coordinated, science-based approach involving all five nations will be necessary, along with a willingness to prioritize long-term environmental sustainability over short-term economic gains. Unfortunately, the Caspian’s five bordering countries are nowhere near the required level of cooperation, nor are there encouraging signs that a joint initiative to directly address the crisis will soon emerge.