BLOG

WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, a report on Iraq’s drought:

A worsening drought is threatening agriculture and livelihoods in the Dhi Qar Governorate of Iraq, 300 kilometres south of Baghdad. Other southern agricultural governorates, including Al-Q?disiyyah, Muthanna and Missan, are also suffering under the effects of the drought. The southern agricultural provinces of Iraq are home to nearly a quarter of the total population of the country. The drought is placing increasing pressure on agricultural families, with dozens of families moving out of at least 20 villages in the area.

Comment

Farmers in the agricultural provinces of southern Iraq largely rely on pumps and generators to draw water. According to an engineer with the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources, Mehdi Rashid, the drought can largely be attributed to poor rainfall patterns and higher temperatures over the last two seasons. These conditions mean that it is increasingly difficult for farmers to obtain water from drying riverbeds. Mr Rashid has warned that Iraq’s reservoirs are currently holding only about 12 per cent of their total collective capacity.

While they significantly contribute to the current problem, poor rainfall patterns are not the only explanation. Rainfall provides just 30 per cent of Iraq’s water resources. The remaining 70 per cent is drawn from transboundary rivers that Iraq shares with Iran, Turkey and Syria. In the Karun River, for example, Iran has diverted much of the river’s course, so that less water flows into Iraq. Iran has also constructed three dams along the Karaj River, reducing the amount of water that flows into the cross-border wetlands between Iran and Iraq.

Turkey is also constructing dams along its section of the Tigris River. If the dams are completed, the further reduction in the flow of water is likely to cause an environmental disaster within southern Iraq and will threaten the lives and livelihoods of thousands within the region. The Euphrates River, which also originates in Turkey, has traditionally been a large source of water for southern Iraq. An increase in Turkey’s retention of water from the Euphrates has led to many farmers in downstream Iraq struggling to obtain water. Provincial tensions within southern Iraq have been increasing, as local upstream tribes extract more water than their quota allows. Some tribes have warned the Iraqi Government of a “war” that may erupt if measures are not taken to manage the water crisis.

Iraq’s Water Minister has said that as a result of both natural climatic causes and dam construction, the amount of water flowing in Iraqi rivers has fallen by at least 40 per cent in recent decades. In the wake of recent conflicts that have plagued the country, the Iraqi Government’s focus on water policy has, understandably, been a secondary concern.

If the government does not succeed in managing the current drought and, in particular, negotiating with Iraq’s neighbours to ensure that it continues to receive an adequate amount of flow in its rivers, it risks exacerbating instability throughout the region. At best, tensions may rise as a result of people relocating from the countryside, but, at worst, the current drought may have the potential to escalate tensions into a larger conflict.