BLOG
July 11th, 2020
Via The Wall Street Journal, an article on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam:
Egypt is attempting to raise international pressure on Ethiopia to strike a deal on the use of water from the Nile, which sustains life for tens of millions of people, as Addis Ababa prepares to begin filling a massive hydroelectric dam on a branch of the river this month.
A long-running dispute between the two American allies over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has prompted threats of war and concerns about a future conflict over water resources under pressure because of climate change.
After Ethiopian leaders last month said the country planned to start filling the $4.8 billion dam in July, Egypt appealed to the United Nations Security Council, as well as the Arab League and other African, Middle Eastern and European states to urgently intervene.
“A threat of potentially existential proportions has emerged that could encroach on the single source of livelihood of over 100 million Egyptians,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told the Security Council last month.
During the meeting, a senior U.N. official and the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Kelly Craft, urged Egypt and Ethiopia to come to an agreement.
Ethiopia says it needs the dam to improve the lives of its citizens. The project would eventually bring electricity to 65 million people in rural Ethiopia, where many currently use firewood as their main source of fuel, the country’s government says.
“Going to the Security Council is almost a nuclear option from the Egyptian perspective,” said Riccardo Fabiani, director of the North Africa Project at International Crisis Group. “It’s part of this policy of maximum pressure and diplomatic isolation that Egypt has been pursuing vis-à-vis Ethiopia.”
Increased diplomatic pressure, however, has limits, analysts said, and military action by Egypt is unrealistic and unlikely. “Ultimately the question comes down to who blinks first,” said Hafsa Halawa, an analyst and nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute studying the dispute over the dam.
Talks between the neighbors—brokered by South Africa and conducted by videoconference—resumed on Friday, mediated by the African Union, according to Sudan’s government, another downstream country that is also involved in the dispute.
The Nile flows from south to north through eastern Africa, with more than 85% of the river’s waters originating in the Blue Nile in Ethiopia’s highlands. The Blue Nile flows into Sudan where it merges with the White Nile, the other major Nile tributary, before entering Egypt. It eventually ends in a large delta and flows into the Mediterranean Sea.
Several rounds of negotiations in recent years have yielded consensus on some 90% of the issues between the three countries, officials say, including a seven-year timeline for filling the dam. But disagreements remain on measures to address droughts, resolve disputes, and whether the deal will be legally binding. Egypt wants a binding accord, while Ethiopia wants more flexibility.
After talks in February, Ethiopia declined to sign a draft agreement accepted by Egypt, arguing that it would have to drain too much water from the dam in the event of a drought.
The dispute over the dam has touched a nerve in countries along the Nile, with Ethiopia challenging Egypt’s historic claims to a dominant role in managing the river’s water. While Egypt has pointed to past treaties that grant it and Sudan rights to most of the river’s water, Ethiopia has rejected those treaties as a legacy of British colonialism.
Climate change also adds to the pressures on the Nile’s waters. A 2019 study from scientists at Dartmouth College found that up to 35% of people living in Nile Basin countries could face water scarcity by 2040 due to rising temperatures and other factors.