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WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, a look at water tension between Iran and Afghanistan that is at risk of boiling over:

Iran is currently facing its worst drought in fifty years, with nearly half the population likely to face severe water shortages. The situation in Afghanistan is also dire, with a 60per cent shortfall in rain and snow during winter; a drought emergency has been declared in several parts of the country. The availability of water per capita is expected to decline by 50 per cent over the next three decades. Afghanistan’s inferior infrastructure has left it with one of the lowest water-storage capacities in the world and large parts of the country cannot effectively use their allocated water resources. In light of this situation, the decision by the Afghan Government to build several dams along the Helmand River has raised tensions with Iran over water allocation, at a time when both countries need every drop.

While there is a bilateral water-sharing agreement between the two countries, the 1973 Helmand River Treaty, it has been ineffective in resolving this dispute; both sides accuse the other of failing to meet their obligations. Iran is haunted by memories of the Taliban closing the sluices of the Kajaki dam in 1998-2001, an action that cut off the water usually supplied to Iran. Iran complains that the Afghans are cultivating more land in Helmand by using Iran’s share. On the other side of the dispute, Afghan officials believe that Iran receives significantly more than the agreed amount and has been providing support to Taliban militants to disrupt the construction of water infrastructure.

Comment

Iran and Afghanistan have generally maintained close relations since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Water allocations, however, have been a source of tension for decades, flaring up periodically in times of drought and hardship. Currently, both countries are suffering from significant droughts; consequently, the issue of sharing water has become highly politicised.

For Afghanistan, dams are an essential tool for both irrigation and electricity generation. They provide a much-needed boost to the agricultural sector and reduce its dependence on electricity imports from neighbouring countries. Currently, only one-third of the water that originates in Afghanistan is used inside the country, the rest flows into Iran and Pakistan. Iran, however, fears that any reduction in the flow of water from Afghanistan could have detrimental economic and environmental effects, as it is reliant on the flow of the Helmand River to meet its water needs.

A speech given by the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, in July 2017 led to demonstrations in Afghan cities and uproar on social media. Many interpreted his statement as a threat of retaliation if Afghanistan continued to build more dams. In a response to those events, the Iranian ambassador to Afghanistan claimed that President Rouhani’s speech was misinterpreted; he rejected any accusations that Tehran had disrupted Kabul’s water projects.

Regardless of whether those accusations are true, Afghanistan plans to build more dams, which is likely to result in weaker relations with Iran. While the development of dams is necessary for Afghan agriculture and industry, Kabul needs to maintain dialogue with Tehran on water sharing, as Iran has a right to its share of the water originating in Afghanistan.

The first step to resolving the water dispute is to record reliable data on the flow and distribution of water between Afghanistan and Iran. Despite claims in the media, there has been no accurate measurement of how much water enters Iran via the Helmand River since Soviet forces destroyed a measuring station built by the United States in the 1970s. The importance of reliable data cannot be understated, as monitoring the quantity of water flowing into Iran will allow both countries to better abide by the terms of the 1973 Helmand River Treaty.

The second step is to improve existing water management practices. Both countries have a history of building dams, digging wells and diverting the flow of water without conducting environmental surveys. They have also planted crops that are not suitable for the changing climate. Domestic water use in Iran is about 70 per cent higher than the global average, despite 87 per cent of Iranian water resources being over exploited, mostly through drilling and an over-reliance on dams.

Finally, the terms of the 1973 Treaty should be revised to reflect the current situation. That would help to create a framework to resolve future disputes over water and build a basis for future co-operation on the use of water resources.

With water becoming an increasingly politicised issue in both Iran and Afghanistan, however, it is doubtful that the water dispute will be resolved any time soon. The Afghan population has called on its government to continue building more dams, despite significant opposition from Iran. Consequently, in the immediate future, relations are likely to remain tense.