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WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, a report on the Mekong River:

The Prime Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam are meeting for the third Mekong River Commission (MRC) Summit in Siem Reap, Cambodia. The MRC was established in 1995 to strengthen joint efforts and partnerships for the sustainable management and development of water resources in mainland South-East Asia. China is not a member of the MRC but operates a series of dams that affect the downstream riparian states. Since the establishment of the Lancang-Mekong Co-operation Mechanism (LMCM) in 2015, it has become clear that China wishes to exert greater influence over the river and its riparians. Representatives of both the MRC and LMCM attending the summit have expressed an interest in pursuing greater co-operation between the two organisations to facilitate closer management of the Mekong River.

Comment

China has made multiple attempts to build rapport with downstream countries in recent years. In April 2016, shortly after the inaugural LMC summit, it released water from the Jinghong hydroelectric dam. It claimed that it did so to relieve drought conditions in the lower portion of the Mekong Basin, which was experiencing the driest conditions in its recorded history. As the Chinese dams contributed to the drought, however, it is more likely that it released the water to reinforce the idea that Chinese engagement is vital to regional water security and to give credence to its claims that it is a responsible manager of trans-boundary water resources.

Similarly, it is keen to maintain that it is willing to listen to regional concerns and establish a consensus before embarking on projects. In 2017, for example, Beijing announced plans to dredge part of the Mekong to allow larger cargo ships to navigate the river. After Thailand expressed concern at the plan, China suggested that it was open to amending or perhaps even cancelling it.

Overall, however, Beijing has continued to support those countries that are determined to develop dams on the river at any cost. China provides funds, materials and labour for dam construction in Laos and Cambodia. While both countries see hydroelectric dams as an integral component of their economic development, Laos plans to graduate from least-developed country status mainly by exporting surplus hydroelectricity to its neighbours. China has been willing to help fund those ambitions, as it believes that it will help to further its interests across greater South-East Asia.

Those dams, however, threaten to interrupt the flow of water and nutrient-rich sediment in the lower portion of the river. Dams that already operate on the Mekong have reduced the sediment load by about 60 per cent, according to a recent UN report. It is believed that the sediment load could be reduced by more than 90 per cent if all the planned dams are built.

The consistent flow of water and sediment plays an integral role in the ecology of the Mekong River and is vital to the agricultural systems of Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. As sediment is deposited along the river bank and in irrigated agriculture, it replaces soil nutrients that are used in agricultural production and stabilises river banks and coastal areas from erosion. A consistent flow of water at the mouth of the Mekong also prevents the salinisation of the fertile Mekong Delta in Vietnam.

If all the planned dams are built, it is likely that the reduction in agricultural production and the cost of artificially reinforcing riverbanks and coastlines will outweigh the economic benefit derived from hydropower. A balance between the development of the region and the agricultural systems that continue to sustain the livelihoods of tens of millions of people along the course of the Mekong will support regional food and water security, while also promoting economic development. That balance remains elusive, however, and neither the MRC nor the LMCM have come close to achieving it.

The MRC was established to provide a forum for managing the development of the Mekong River and, while it has proven to be toothless in the sense that it has not fostered a co-operative approach among its membership, it has provided an outlet for the more cautious appraisal of dams. Given the enthusiasm of China for big dam projects, including those outside its own territory, it is likely to challenge those cautious voices if it is given greater leverage over the MRC. That outcome will not be in the best interests of the Mekong River or those who live alongside it.