BLOG
February 1st, 2017
Via Future Directions International, a report on the potential for a Pakistan-Afghanistan water treaty:
Pakistan and Afghanistan share seven trans-boundary rivers, with the majority commencing in Afghanistan. The Kabul River – one of the most developed rivers and a major potential source of hydropower – has been the main source of water conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The 700-kilometre long river is a tributary of the Indus River and irrigates Kabul and Jalalabad, two of Afghanistan’s largest cities, before flowing into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a north-western province of Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan’s water storage capacity is limited to 30 days. If it fails to secure greater water resources it could experience dire food and water shortages within the next ten years.
Comment
The absence of a formal water treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan has left conditions ripe for conflict over shared water resources. Kabul believes that Pakistan benefits from water flowing from Afghanistan without any consideration for its needs. Although Pakistan has used an increasing amount of water from the Kabul River in the last 30 years, it has not financially contributed towards flow control structures or river management. The lack of co-operation between the two countries has also seen Kabul’s reluctance to share flow data. The hostile relationship between the two riparians has also been influenced by terrorism, with each accusing the other of supporting non-state actors.
While Pakistan is not physically water-scarce, inefficient water use, particularly in the agricultural sector, has contributed to its water crisis. As the lower riparian, the country’s water crisis may be exacerbated if it cannot negotiate a water-sharing arrangement with Kabul. The Afghan Government has started building 12 hydro-electric power plant and irrigation diversion projects with financial support from India. The projects will reduce the net flow of water into Pakistan, adversely affecting the livelihoods of thousands of Pakistanis. Not only could the reduced flow cause tension between Islamabad and Kabul, but, given the turbulent relationship between India and Pakistan, New Delhi’s support for Afghan water projects may create another source of tension within the region.
Although no formal treaty has been signed to secure riparian rights with Pakistan, Afghanistan signed a water-sharing treaty with Iran in 1973. In response to Afghan dam construction, however, Iran has attempted to secure a larger share of water from the Helmand River. Afghan officials have alleged that Iran has developed a close relationship with the Taliban to target Afghan water and energy projects. While Tehran has denied involvement with the Taliban, it is evident that suspicion and mistrust surrounds the riparian relationship. Any evidence of co-operation between two riparians should be praised, but the bilateral agreement may also be used as a cautionary tale for any future arrangements signed between Pakistan and Afghanistan. If the two countries sign a treaty for the greater good of ensuring future water security for millions of people, it is important that riparian treaties are not jeopardised by underlying tensions.
A water-sharing treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan would be an important development in the relationship between the two countries, particularly to maintain regional stability and minimise socio-political tension. While bilateral arrangements are not without their challenges, in an increasingly water-stressed world, both states have much to lose if they cannot co-operate to create a fair and formalised riparian agreement.
