WATER POLITICS

As long as China does not sign comprehensive water sharing agreements regarding water ulitisation of transboundary rivers with neighbouring countries, transboundary water management will continue to fuel geopolitical fears in the region. Given China’s search for clean energy in lieu of coal, construction of hydropower plants on transboundary waters appears inevitable. Indeed the NEA Work Plan for 2014 published on 20 January 2014, plans to approve 20GW of hydropower (almost the equivalent to another Three Gorges Dam) this year. As such, we expect to see China continue to demonstrate skills in delicately jumping over/between these obstacles in the regional competition for water.

Deterioration of our water resources is also an issue. In late December, 19 Chinese NGOs published a report saying that China’s 22,000 large dams are causing 60% of the international river basins to fragment. It is believed that these big dams have also changed natural ecosystems, endangering biodiversity and possibly bringing on the droughts.

Also, Himalayan glaciers, are melting at a faster pace thanks to climate change. Although this Third Pole is not disappearing by 2035 (as alleged in the 2007 IPCC report) the glaciers are nevertheless still melting and this could affect up to 500 million people in South Asia and 250 million people in China (read nomadic perspectives on glacial melt here).

Given the magnitude of hydro expansion in the future and increasing water scarcity exacerbated by climate change, we expect to see increasing regional pressure on China to sign water sharing agreements. China however, has a mixed record of cooperation on water sharing so far as one of the few countries voting against the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention to provide a regulatory framework to resolve transboundary water conflicts (more on China’s water treaty landscape here).

Nevertheless, we see China playing a bigger role in water in the region. There are not only domestic interests to protect but growing international pressure to pursue regional cooperation on water. With Ireland becoming the 33rd party to the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention in December 2013, only two signatories are required before the convention comes into force, with or without China’s consent.

In 2014, we expect to see China continue the soft-path to transboundary water by moving to establish a more comprehensive water law framework so that it can better facilitate the process of solving geopolitical water conflicts. Ultimately, China needs to move beyond sharing hydrological data with her neighbours to find a win-win solution on water resource utilization in the shared rivers. India is also battling with ever-increasing water, food & energy demand, whilst combating climate change impacts on the Third Pole. Side-stepping & jumping around these obstacles may no longer be a beneficial course of action.