China is giving the world a dubious gift. On Christmas Day, Beijing approved the final construction plan of what would be the world’s largest electrical power complex, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua. The Great Bend hydroelectric project, which would sit on China’s contested border with India, would inflame tensions between the two giants and aggravate other South Asian nations. The project is further evidence of China’s long-term drive to control the waters of the Tibetan Plateau, which supply more than two billion people.
The megadam would endanger the ecologies of China and its southern neighbors. It would reinforce Xi Jinping’s economic plan to rely on industrial production for growth, to the detriment of the local and global environment. It would also undermine investment in human resources as the country channels money into infrastructure rather than education, health and other social services. This industrial-focused growth model is already floundering and stoking public discontent with the communist regime.
The incoming Trump administration ought to call attention to China’s planned assault on the environment and work with South Asian nations to limit the extent of the damage.
The ambitious new complex would have three times the power-generating capacity of the world’s current largest hydropower project—the Three Gorges Dam on China’s Yangtze River. Its estimated output would be equivalent to more than 60 average-size nuclear plants.
In theory, it would diminish the use of coal and generate cleaner power for China’s growing electricity needs, including transportation, artificial intelligence, robotics and communications. But it would come at an enormous cost to the ecology and water resources of China and South Asia. The project would also give China too much control over the waters and livelihoods of people in South Asia, without any meaningful consultation or input from the affected nations.
The proposed dam would be built on the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, just north of the disputed border with India’s Arunachal Pradesh province. The river is called the Brahmaputra River as it crosses the border into India and then called the Jamuna River when it reaches Bangladesh. It is a major source of water for the people of Bangladesh and India. China has already built several dams upriver, and this project would enhance China’s ability to control the river’s flows.
The dam would be situated where the river takes a sharp bend and plunges about 6,500 feet, making it an ideal place to generate hydropower. Completion of this project would include drilling four to six 12-mile long tunnels through solid rock mountains. The plan is to divert half the river’s flow at more than 70,000 cubic feet per second through the tunnels to generate the expected electricity output. Such huge destruction to a seismically fragile mountain landscape has never been attempted and could seriously endanger local infrastructure, along with downstream river valleys and their inhabitants.
The Great Bend project would allow China to control the timing and quantity of water flows to South Asia, with enormous consequences to the region’s agriculture and freshwater supplies. China’s control of dams on other waterways, such as the Mekong River, has already had dire consequences for Southeast Asia, damaging agricultural cycles in this densely populated region.
The decision to move forward with this project tells us several things about the direction Mr. Xi is taking China. First, it’s clear that his view of China is that of the Middle Kingdom—that is, the notion that China is the center of civilization, and in turn, that the world must accede to its sovereign claims. The needs of the Chinese economy take priority over sharing natural resources with neighboring countries in an equitable way. The project’s effects on the people of China or adjacent countries and to the environment is of little concern.
Secondly, the huge infrastructure cost for this project—$137 billion, or three times the cost of the Three Gorges—is part of Mr. Xi’s reliance on infrastructure development as a preferred instrument of economic growth, alongside industrial development. Investment in these areas comes at the expense of others: The debt-shackled economy is giving less priority to investments in education, pensions, healthcare and other social services. Mr. Xi’s obsession with industrial and infrastructure development without regard for human development is a recipe for continued slow growth and weakening confidence in Mr. Xi’s leadership.
Mr. Xi is touting the environmental benefits of this new project. But the potential downsides—including seismic risks, water disputes with other countries, humanitarian concerns, and China’s continued overreliance on heavy industry to drive its economy—greatly outweigh the supposed benefits.