WATER POLITICS

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit last month was the most high profile Indian diplomatic engagement in Pakistan since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise pit-stop in Lahore in 2015. Jaishankar’s visit mirrored then-Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s participation in the SCO summit at Goa last year, which was the first major diplomatic trip to India undertaken from Pakistan since then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s attendance at Modi’s inauguration ceremony in 2014. 

With regional rhetoric calming in the aftermath of both Pakistan and India holding elections earlier this year, 2025 is prognosticated to bring about a change in bilateral relations, which have been on a standstill since 2019.

India and Pakistan were on the brink of war following an aerial dogfight in February 2019. New Delhi’s revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status six months later reaffirmed the diplomatic impasse between the nuclear-armed states. Bilateral trade has remained largely suspended, with even regional bodies becoming inactive, as exemplified by the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) not holding a summit since 2014. 

Now, with Pakistan’s all-powerful army suffering a dip in public support and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) losing its single-party majority in India, the power centers of hypernationalism are facing local resistance, paving the ground for a bilateral thaw.

The Diplomat spoke with well-placed diplomats in both New Delhi and Islamabad, to gauge the mood for reconciliation. While there isn’t overenthusiasm on either side, both hint at the possibility of a breakthrough, albeit with contrasting perspectives. In Islamabad, for instance, the focus remains on bilateral parity, while New Delhi now envisions Pakistan as one of several regional players. Pakistan is more public in its acknowledgement of its desire to rebuild ties, while India remains more circumspect – a policy that has played out on the cricket field in recent years. India refuses to reciprocate Pakistan’s participation in the India-hosted 2023 Cricket World Cup by deciding against traveling to the country for the upcoming Champions Trophy.

Even so, amid the diplomatic skirmishes, senior government officials confirm that a backchannel understanding has remained. For instance, Islamabad had been informed in advance of New Delhi’s plans to revoke Articles 370 and 35-A in India-administered Kashmir, while the Pakistani state has been working on formalizing the borders of its own administered Kashmir, which has been increasingly erupting in protests. Moreover, officials on both sides have confirmed that while a similar understanding over the eventual resumption of ties exists, the timing would have to be carefully measured for domestic consumption, with Pakistan’s military working on rebuilding its credibility among the masses and the BJP seeking to regain its lost voters.

With neither power center being able to afford any show of weakness at home, official bilateral engagement would require the political climate to be right. Ironically, both countries have found an opening in the literal climate being wrong.

At COP29, the U.N. Climate Change Conference held in Baku last week, both India and Pakistan echoed subcontinental concerns over global warming and its impact on South Asia, especially the Himalayan region. Similarly, the rivals were on the same page with regards to holding the developed world more accountable in terms of the finances needed to address disproportionate impact of climate change. 

While the developing world is collectively affected by global policies, both India and Pakistan are also hit by environmental crises of their own doing. Immediately following Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad, northern India and eastern Pakistan, most notably New Delhi and Lahore, were engulfed in toxic smog, making them the two most polluted cities in the world over the past month. Smog, the most toxic addition to longstanding subcontinental poetic clichés over entities not bound by the border, might provide the pretext for environmental cooperation, and climate change, to break the ice between India and Pakistan.

In addition to the dearth of any political or nationalistic baggage, what made climate change a regular feature of SAARC declarations is the multipronged impact it has on the entire region and not merely one particular power. For India and Pakistan, the effects of climate change extend beyond air pollution – and are frequently exacerbated by the lack of a functioning bilateral relationship. Examples range from the aggravation of the plight of fishermen captured on the other side of the maritime borders to the food crises jarring flood victims in the absence of bilateral trade.

Even so, despite the environmental opening, and the backchannel understanding, the primary contention between the two countries – security issues, along with the correlated ideological baggage and religionist supremacism – would need to be addressed.

“India is a more functioning democracy than we are. So addressing these challenges is only realistic if people of India put pressure on the government. Now that the Maharashtra elections are over, the policy will become clearer, especially with the Champions Trophy coming up,” former Pakistan Cabinet Secretary Syed Abu Ahmad Akif told The Diplomat.

Veteran political analyst Anil Maheshwari, author of “Polarised Times,” believes religionist forces continue to have decisive sway in the power corridors of both New Delhi and Islamabad. “The leaders in both the countries are wary of hostile reactions from the religious extremists. They fail to understand that these conservative forces, smarting under the religious garb hardly have any significant electoral impact in both the countries,” he told The Diplomat. “But the political leadership in both the countries is hostage… to the bureaucracy in India and the army in Pakistan.”

Given that the will of the people is likely to be a key determiner in the ice-breaking, Maheshwari warned that environmental issues still don’t resonate with the people, whose attention is absorbed by economic crises – even if climate change might be exacerbating those very issues. “The common man is busy in making ends meet. [For the masses] climate is just a fancy and catchy slogan. Why do we forget [former Pakistan finance minister and economist] Mahbub-ul-Haq’s words that ‘poverty is the biggest polluter’?” Maheshwari added.

Since fiscal considerations would inevitably be at the heart of any India-Pakistan reconciliation, many experts have cited a merger of environmental and economic concerns to create a more convincing narrative for collaboration.

“Such collaboration could also be useful in getting funding for mitigation and adaptation measures… providing funding to developing countries. Together, India and Pakistan can be in a better position for such negotiations,” noted the U.K.-based Royal Society for the Environment’s Saima Baig while talking to The Diplomat.

Baig added that since India and Pakistan share vulnerabilities to floods, droughts, and heatwaves, cooperation in important common areas like water management, disaster management, and renewable energy can be decisive. “All of these can not only help the countries to prepare for extreme events but also provide a neutral platform, bypassing political disputes. Collaboration in climate related matters could help to build trust and could be the first step in broader diplomacy. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could be a good neutral place to start,” she maintained.

Signed in 1960, the IWT divided the eastern and western rivers across the border between India and Pakistan. While the treaty has survived wars, it has become vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for India and Pakistan to collaborate on water management. The IWT also underlines the significance of international brokers in India-Pakistan negotiations. 

“Collaboration between India and Pakistan can be mediated by world powers, just as the Indus Waters Treaty was done by the World Bank,” said Akif, the former Pakistani government official.

“But with the right-wing in power the world over, including President Donald Trump’s government [in the United States], there is unlikely to be any press for a global agenda on climate change,” he added.