WATER POLITICS

FOR MANY living on Kazakhstan’s coast, it was obvious long ago. The Caspian Sea is drying up. The world’s largest inland body of water has dropped by two metres since the mid-1990s, shrinking by 15,000 square km, an area bigger than Connecticut. Each year in Aktau, a coastal city, the sea retreats further from the shore.

Two factors lie behind the Caspian’s decline. Growing water use along Russia’s Volga river, which provides 80-90% of the Caspian’s inflows, has caused volumes entering the sea to drop. Meanwhile rising temperatures have pushed up evaporation rates, leaching more water from the sea itself. Researchers at the University of Bremen predict that if global warming continues on present-day trends, the Caspian could drop by around eight metres by the end of the century. If temperatures rise faster, it could fall by as much as 20 metres. A decline in that range would cause swathes of the sea to vanish, particularly in the north-east, where it is shallowest.

The most immediate impact would be felt by the Caspian’s wildlife. Species such as the Caspian seal are already suffering from falling water levels, says Assel Baimukanova, a researcher at Kazakhstan’s Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology. But the Caspian’s retreat would also have unpredictable environmental consequences for the wider region. In time, a smaller Caspian would lead to lower rainfall in Central Asia, where water is already scarce.

Central Asia’s economies could suffer, too. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, trade has boomed in the region, particularly through the “middle corridor”, which bypasses Russia by linking East Asia to Europe via the Caspian’s ports. Money has poured into Kazakhstan’s ports, too, which are expanding to deal with increasing volumes. But as the Caspian shrinks, investments in new infrastructure will start to look riskier. Ships already leave Aktau before they are fully loaded because of shallower waters. Authorities in Kuryk, another Kazakhstani port, have ordered large-scale dredging in an effort to boost capacity. Kazakhstan’s oil business has been disrupted, too. The operator of the Kashagan oilfield in the northern Caspian was recently forced to dig channels in the seabed to allow ships to reach its facilities, after a drop in the sea level blocked access for normal vessels.

Last year the local authority in Aktau declared a state of emergency over the fall in water levels. This summer Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, complained to Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, that the situation could become “catastrophic”. In principle, under the 2003 Tehran Convention, the countries surrounding the Caspian are committed to preserving its environment. But their governments—a mixture of post-Soviet regimes and autocracies—are slow to act, despite the looming economic consequences.