WATER POLITICS

Despite the disastrous floods this spring, it is a usual picture for particular regions of Kazakhstan to face water shortages in summer. To maintain water content in the three largest rivers of the country, the state increases expenses. In the last decade, over 30 billion Kazakh tenge (66.9 million dollars, hereafter the rate is 448 Kazakh tenge for 1 dollar, unless otherwise specified) have been allocated from the budget for Zhaiyk (Ural) and Yertis (Irtysh). At least 4 billion Kazakh tenge (8.9 million dollars) is required to build the in-channel basin of Syrdarya River.

44 per cent of the surface water resources in Kazakhstan are replenished from sources located outside the country. This is how the water runoff has declined in the largest waterways in the last decade: in Aral-Syrdarya basin, the most troubled water basin, the decline has reached 15 per cent (10.2 cubic kilometres) on the side of Uzbekistan, in Shu-Talas – 32 per cent (1.3 cubic kilometres) on the side of Kyrgyzstan, in Irtysh (Yertis) – 21.5 per cent (2.1 cubic kilometres) on the side of China, in Zhaiyk-Caspian – 15 per cent (1.3 cubic kilometres) on the side of the Russian Federation. This information has been provided by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of Kazakhstan.

Upon the request, the ministry provided actual data from the gauging station from republican state enterprise ‘Kazgidromet’ (shown on the chart above – Editor’s note). Runoff volumes are not constant and depend on climatic factors. Nevertheless, water content decline is a noticeable general trend.

An attentive reader can assume from the chart that there are improvements of the water content of River Zhaiyk, but it is not so actually. West Kazakhstan and Atyrau regions (regions crossed by Zhaiyk) can hardly solve the water deficit issue.

West, Zhaiyk

According to the Office for Water Resources and Environmental Control of Atyrau region, low water supply was seen from 2006-2021 and they provide more accurate data regarding latest spring releases of water. In 2021, the level of water in the river was 350 centimetres in spring, in 2022 – 375 centimetres, in 2023 – 440 centimetres. However, the standard level is 455 centimetres.

Authorities of Atyrau region admitted that “the condition of water resources raises serious concerns and water shortage becomes more tangible every year.”

It is a particularly difficult time for the region as it is located downstream of River Zhaiyk, whose water content evolves in 80 per cent in Russia and depends on major reservoirs and hydraulic structures located in the neighbouring country.

The region tries to address water shortage by means of government investments in the form of target transfers from the republican budget. From 2013, Atyrau region has spent over 7.3 billion tenge (16.2 million dollars) to improve water content of River Zhaiyk.

As you can see on the chart, annual expenses have increased from 447 million tenge (2.9 million dollars at the 2013 rate) to over 2 billion tenge (4.5 million dollars at the 2023 rate). This is information provided by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan. There is a clear trend when there is less water and more cash resources are spent on maintaining the water content of river, yet we see no trend towards improvement of water situation.

“Analysis of dynamics of Zhaiyk river flow shows that it tends to decline every year and has negative consequences both for the economy of the western region of Kazakhstan and for the environment of the lower course and northern part of the Caspian Sea,” said Nurlan Dzhantokov, head of the Office for Water Resources and Environmental Control of Atyrau region. He explained the scope of the problem. Thus, the coastline has moved back significantly due to the decline in the background level of the Caspian Sea. Because of the shortage of spring runoff and shallow lower course of River Zhaiyk, migration routes of sturgeon and other species of fish have been hindered, and areas of their spawning grounds were reduced to a minimum. “Shallow channels in the lower reaches of the river are in critical state – many of them have not just shrunk, but started to run dry and turn into separate fragments with stagnant water. But the bulk of fish both ordinary fish and sturgeon go to spawn to the river via them, which serve as vital waterways. If the river is shrinking at an alarming rate, its arms run dry and overgrow with reed, meaning they disappear,” Dzhantokov said.

The scope of work and their high price can be estimated based on the layout plan of sedimentary control of riverbed and channels (see figure below). The contract value under the terms of reference estimated for three years is over 2 billion tenge (about 4.6 million dollars).

Source: website of public procurement of the Republic of Kazakhstan  

If the above 7.3 billion tenge (16.2 million tenge) is republican transfers for ten years,  local budget expenditures for maintenance of River Zhaiyk exceed them. Since 2021, Atyrau region signed two major contracts for 10.6 billion tenge (23.6 million dollars) and 5.5 billion tenge (12.2 million dollars). What is meant here is the cost of protection works of the bank 4.5 kilometres long in the village of Makhambet, located on the right bank of River Zhaiyk 70 kilometres away from Atyrau, and expenditures for dredging works up to a distance of 54.5 kilometres.

High-cost works meant to maintain water resources are being carried out upstream of River Zhaiyk in West Kazakhstan region. The tender for bank protection works in the amount of 6.4 billion tenge (14.2 million dollars) was announced in March on the public procurement website.

The works are planned above the village of Krugloozernoye near Uralsk. Moreover, the region has already invested nearly 3 billion tenge (6.6 million dollars) to bank protection works near villages Oblavka and Zharsuat of Borili district, West Kazakhstan region, and continues works near the village of Chapayevo, Akzhaik district, West Kazakhstan region, that cost 962 million tenge (2.1 million dollars). The deadline of works is in 2024.

However, we did not take into account the improvement of Kirovo-Chizhinsky channel for the interbasin water transfer from the Ural-Kushum system to River Bolshoy Uzen. Works there have been carried out since 2011 and cost 7 billion tenge  (15.6 million dollars). According to the akimat of West Kazakhstan region, all four stages of the improvement were completed, but logical completion of the project and accumulation of floodwater and storage of water in the low-water season require construction of Zhalpaktal reservoir with capacity 28 million cubic metres of water.

Talks about Zhalpaktal reservoir have been held since 2018. There is a project feasibility study and the announced cost of construction of the water body was 1 billion tenge (2.2 million dollars). However, the price has probably changed significantly. Perhaps, the critical situation with floods in spring 2024 can help local authorities speed up the process of fund raising for the reservoir.

North, Yertis

Unlike western regions, the akimat (administration) of Pavlodar region claims that they have no shortage of water.  However, analysis of costs of clearing and maintenance of the bed of River Yertis in the last decade shows significant budget expenses. Take a look for yourself: general expenses, according to the akimat of the region, amounted to 9.3 billion tenge (20.7 million dollars). Usually, these are very expensive long-term contracts.

Despite the fact that the administration of Pavlodar region claimed no shortage of water in the region, some district have issues with access to water. It is evident from the public contract dated 2023 for 1.5 billion tenge (3.3 million dollars) for dredging works in Talinka Arm of River Yertis. These works are needed to improve water supply to irrigate farm lands of Aktogai district.

This is how planned dredging works in the village of Irtyshsk in the same Pavlodar region look like in 2024. Their cost is almost 1.4 billion tenge (3.1 million dollars). It is worth mentioning that these works were quite on time because the drought and lack of water last summer prompted local farmers to ask the president of Kazakhstan for help.

However, the situation with access to water in Pavlodar region is a little better compared to the lower reaches of River Zhaiyk. It is due to the fact that 77 per cent of water runoff is formed in the neighbouring territory of East Kazakhstan region (23 per cent upstream, i.e. in China) and amounts to 33.6 cubic kilometres, while the annual diversion to the Russian Federation amounts to nearly 22-24 cubic kilometres of water.

South, Syrdarya

Although the level of water flow in River Yertis in percentage terms declines faster than that in Aral-Syrdarya basin, the situation in the south is more complex and getting worse.

The akimat of Kyzylorda region makes no secret of the fact that it has been very difficult to ensure irrigation of farm crops in the vegetative season in the last 3-4 years due to the decrease of water flow from upper reaches of River Syrdarya. Despite the promised limit (set by the ministry of ecology) of 4159.9 million cubic metres, only 3821.37 million cubic metres were actually received in 2023, and even less was received in the previous two years. The limits had to be cut at the regional level due to water shortage in Shardara reservoir and Koksarai counter-regulating reservoir (built by 2011, it regulates the flow of River Syrdarya for irrigation and protection from floods).

Background information

Shardara reservoir is located along River Syrdarya on the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and regulates water flow and is used as a source for the eponymous hydropower plant. The 85th session of the Interstate Coordination Water Commission forecasted intake of 11.1 billion cubic metres of water in the period from October 1, 2023 to April 1, 2024. Also, despite the forecasted inflow of 4.4 billion cubic metres of water to Shardara, only 3.5 billion cubic metres was actually received. Today Shardara reservoir and Koksarai counter-regulating reservoir have accumulated 2.9 billion cubic metres of water, which is 2 billion cubic metres less compared to the similar period last year.

Unlike western and northern regions, Kyzylorda region did not receive any republican transfers for improving the surface of water resources since 2013. Moreover, the region could not obtain the funds to recover the irrigation intake, which supplied water to 30 thousand hectares of irrigated land, since 2017.

 

The irrigation intake was built and operated since 2013, but in 2017 concrete slabs of the intake were swept away by the flood caused by the water flow discharged along the riverbed of River Syrdarya. Since then, the restoration has been suspended for years. Only in autumn 2023, ex-prime minister of Kazakhstan Alikhan Smailov responded to the senator’s request regarding the situation and said that the funds were allocated for the construction of the feeding canal for Kelintobe diversion canal in Zhanakorgan district of Kyzylorda region. The discussed amount is 542,8 million tenge (1.2 million dollars).

But the canal will not solve the issue of systematic water issues in the region. Just like in West Kazakhstan region, the reservoir is well overdue. Local authorities hope that it can help accumulate up to 1 billion cubic metres of floodwater for regular irrigation of 31 thousand hectares of lands in Karmakshi and Kazaly districts, 120 thousand hectares of pastures and hayfields, and even to supply water to Small Aral in the cropping season. The price is already known, about 4 bollion tenge (8.9 million dollars). However, it is unclear when the project will be funded, just like in West Kazakhstan region.

The government had an ambitious plan in 2020 to build 39 new reservoirs in nine regions for 115 billion tenge (256.6 million dollars). However, the plan remained at the stage of feasibility study.

So far, we are willing to invest relatively modest funds compared to what is needed to solve the problem of water shortage in rivers at the republican level.

The budget of the same Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation for the republican programme of improvement of water content in rivers in the regions is quite modest, only 2.6 billion tenge (5.8 million dollars) is budgeted for 2024. There is a plan for 13 billion tenge (29 million dollars) for 2025, provided that the amounts are not decreased because of the chronic budget gap in Kazakhstan.

The new information system of water resources ‘Hydro.gov.kz’ to be launched in September 2024 can possibly change the situation (public access is promised). It is expected that the new resource will allow getting spatial data from satellite data about the condition of rivers (and any water bodies), including water use assessment. Thus, not only the government and local authorities, but also ordinary Kazakhstanis can see the scope of water shortage across the country.