BLOG
April 8th, 2021
Via Al Monitor, a report on the crisis around GERD:
At his Senate confirmation hearing in January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the crisis in Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) could “boil over” in the absence of a diplomatic resolution. It didn’t take long.
‘Last chance’ for diplomacy flops in Kinshasa. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said that talks this week in Kinshasa with Ethiopia and Sudan were the “last chance” for a diplomatic solution to the GERD crisis. The talks, mediated by Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, who became chairman of the African Union in February, broke up in acrimony on April 6 with Egypt and Sudan on one side and Ethiopia on the other, blaming each other for the failure to reach an agreement on how water in the Nile should be allocated, as Ayah Aman reports. In a statement, Ethiopia declared it will go ahead with the second filling of the GERD, which would diminish the waters that flow to Egypt.
Sisi: Don’t touch our water. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi said today that “an Egyptian water drop shall not be messed with, because all options open.” Egypt’s population of 100 million depends on the Nile for 95% of its water needs. Any interruption in the flow of Nile water because of the dam could have economic and social consequences. Egypt wants an internationally brokered plan for water management of the Nile, including the new dam. For Ethiopia, though, the Nile also is a sensitive nationalist issue. Talks mediated by the United States, the World Bank and the African Union, including the latest round in Kinshasa, have so far yielded little progress.
US has leverage. Egypt and Sudan say they will take their case to the Security Council. Blinken has promised “fully engaged” diplomacy in the region. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on April 6 the United States will “encourage a productive dialogue” to resolve the crisis. The Biden administration has good relations and leverage with all three parties. Blinken spoke this week with Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok about the GERD talks and US support for Sudan’s transition, as we explain here. Washington has long-standing ties, including substantial aid and assistance, to both Ethiopia and Egypt. But are they enough? The Trump administration and the World Bank worked out a framework for management in February 2020, but Ethiopia at the last minute failed to show up and sign the paper. Plus, there are other issues in the background: The Biden administration is also “gravely concerned by reported human rights violations, abuses and atrocities in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.”