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WATER POLITICS

Via Future Directions International, a report on China’s interest in Myanmar dams:

Background

The issue of Chinese-constructed Dams in South-East Asia has been the cause of much unrest in recent decades. Myanmar’s stop-start development of the Myistone Dam, one of Myanmar’s largest projects, overseen by the state owned ‘China Power Investment Corporation,’ received extensive coverage after the project was abruptly halted in 2011 by Thein Sein, the president at the time, due to predictions that 10,000 people would be displaced. In the lead up to the Twenty-first Century Panglong Conference, the planned damming of the Salween River has become a new hot topic of debate. Ethnic tensions in states still experiencing conflict despite ongoingnational reforms, food and water security, and environmental impact concerns all add to this complex issue and cause it to often surface as a crucial point of political discussion. Campaigns to prevent State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi from proceeding with the planning and construction of seven dams along the river have been relentless; however, on 12 August 2016 the government announced that the project will proceed with predominantly Chinese investment. With the Chinese pushing the plans ahead, tension has increased amongst local activists concerned for the welfare and environmental issues the state will incur as a result of the project.

Comment

Before considering the political impact of decisions surrounding the damming of the Salween River, it is important to understand the social and environmental impacts. The Burma Rivers Network, an organisation devoted to recording all developments concerning Myanmar’s rivers, has provided a comprehensive overview of the positiveand negative impacts of the project. Benefits of the project could include higher living standards and employment rates, greater access to electricity for the areas of the Shan and Karen states, and improved communications, tourism, trading, education and health care. Additionally, a large majority of the electricity produced will be exported to other countries, predominantly China, which will provide much needed income to Myanmar’s economy. Conversely, future negative implications of the Salween River project will likely include decreased flow of sediment and altered river flows causing increased soil salinity affecting agricultural productivity, decreased drinking water quality, unexpected or unnatural erosion, and a decline in fishing catch rates due to interrupted migrations. Weighing up the strengths and weaknesses of the project should be given full consideration before going ahead with construction. The government’s decision to go ahead with the project without local consultation concerning social and environmental impacts has spurred political outrage not only by civil society groups and NGOs, but also by the many Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs).

The 21^st Century Panglong Conference beginning on 31 August will essentially aim to unite the many competing interest groups within Myanmar in establishing a peace agreement. The conference will include 16 representatives from the government, 16 from EAOs and ten from political parties, in an attempt to create inclusive decision making on the country’s future, though uncharacteristically excluding civil societyorganisations. The announcement of planned dam construction along the Salween was not welcomed by many EAOs, who are concerned about social and environmental impacts, and from whom an increase in militant activity is expected in reaction to the protection Myanmar Army forces will be providing to the construction areas deep in the areas they historically control. The dams are largely seen by EAOs as a mechanism for asserting dominance, especially in Myanmar’s north-eastWa ethnic minority is located. Increased hostility toward the government following announcement of the dam project is likely to create difficulties in negotiations at the conference.

Now, it is evident that the Myanmar Government finds itself in a struggle between internal hostilities arising from ethnic unrest, social and environmental concerns, and external interests from Chinese investment that will mean economic benefit for the country. Publicly, it has already chosen the side of economic interest, but concessions on its position will be crucial to future peace. Chinese disapproval resulting from a change in position on the issue should not be of great concern. China has decided to transform its part of the river in to a national park, and should the dams not go ahead this tourism approach to developing the region could provide a welcome alternative for co-operation between the two countries. China’s eagerness to sell its labour and capital in the push for infrastructure development can certainly be met through other means, exemplified through the recent agreement to build a strategic bridge near their border and build two hospitals in Myanmar’s two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. When the 21^st Century Panglong Conference convenes on 31 August, agreement on the issue of the dams will rest upon the government abandoning its unilateral approach.